《好莱坞报道》10月中旬奥斯卡预测：《奥德赛》领跑最佳影片 诺兰成导演奖头号热门
据《好莱坞报道》（The Hollywood Reporter）报道，该刊颁奖季专栏作家 Scott Feinberg 近日发布其「Feinberg Forecast」预测栏目的10月中旬版榜单，对2027年第99届奥斯卡金像奖各主要奖项的走势作出最新评估。Feinberg 表示，这份榜单是他综合与学院投票成员及颁奖季策略师的交流、各片的营销与竞逐活动、奥斯卡前哨奖项的结果以及奥斯卡历史规律后得出的判断，反映的是他对学院投票意向的预测，而非个人偏好，赛季内还会随新动态定期更新。第99届奥斯卡提名名单定于2027年1月21日公布，颁奖典礼将于2027年3月14日在洛杉矶杜比剧院举行，由 Conan O'Brien 主持。
在最佳影片的预测排位中，Christopher Nolan（诺兰）执导的史诗片《奥德赛》（The Odyssey，环球影业）高居榜首，被 Feinberg 称为「明确的领跑者」。该片今年7月上映后全球票房已突破16亿美元，在评论网站烂番茄上的好评率达94%。Feinberg 同时指出，该片在学院内部放映会上获得的反应热烈但并非狂热，其主创团队也未出席映后问答。紧随其后的领跑者依次包括：Martin McDonagh 执导的《Wild Horse Nine》（探照灯影业）、Phil Lord 与 Christopher Miller 执导、Ryan Gosling 主演的科幻片《Project Hail Mary》（Amazon MGM）、西班牙语史诗片《La Bola Negra》（Netflix）、罗马尼亚导演 Cristian Mungiu 的《Fjord》（Neon）、Olivia Wilde 自导自演的《The Invite》（A24）、《Tender Loving Care》（Bleecker Street）、Danny Boyle 的《Ink》（Netflix）、James Gray 的《Paper Tiger》（Neon），以及皮克斯的《Toy Story 5》。主要挑战者则包括《Obsession》、迈克尔·杰克逊传记片《Michael》、《Fatherland》与《All of a Sudden》等。
导演奖方面，Nolan 被视为头号热门，有望继《奥本海默》后再度获奖；McDonagh、《La Bola Negra》的联合导演 Javier Ambrossi 与 Javier Calvo，以及 Mungiu 同处第一梯队。表演奖项方面，男主角的预测焦点集中在《奥德赛》的 Matt Damon 与《Wild Horse Nine》的 John Malkovich 身上，后者刚在威尼斯电影节摘得最佳男演员奖；女主角方面，Julianne Moore 在《The Debut》中的表演被置于前列；男配角方面，《The Debut》的 Paul Giamatti 与《Wild Horse Nine》的 Sam Rockwell 呼声最高；女配角方面，《奥德赛》的 Anne Hathaway 与《La Bola Negra》的 Penélope Cruz 领跑。
国际与动画方面，《La Bola Negra》已获选为西班牙角逐最佳国际影片的送选作品，并拿下多伦多电影节观众选择奖，被视为国际影片奖的最强竞争者之一；《Toy Story 5》不仅进入最佳影片预测十强，也被看好领跑动画长片奖。眼下距离提名投票（2027年1月11日至15日）尚有近三个月，其间还有多部重磅影片待映、多个前哨奖待揭晓，Feinberg 的榜单预计仍将多次调整。
Feinberg Forecast: 'The Odyssey' Leads Mid-October Oscar Predictions, per The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg has released the mid-October edition of his "Feinberg Forecast" standings, his latest assessment of the race for the 99th Academy Awards, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Feinberg says the forecast reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences rather than his personal preferences, drawn from consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself, and it will be updated regularly as the season develops. Nominations for the 99th Oscars will be announced on January 21, 2027, and the ceremony will be held on March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, hosted by Conan O'Brien.
In the best picture standings, Christopher Nolan's epic The Odyssey (Universal) sits at No. 1 and is described by Feinberg as "the clear frontrunner." Released in July, the film has grossed more than $1.6 billion worldwide and holds a 94 percent approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Feinberg also notes that the film was warmly but not effusively received at its official Academy screening in Los Angeles, and that its principal talent did not appear for a post-screening Q&A, which did not help its cause. The other frontrunners, in order, are Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight), the sci-fi hit Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM), directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller and starring Ryan Gosling, the Spanish-language epic La Bola Negra (Netflix), Cristian Mungiu's Fjord (Neon), Olivia Wilde's The Invite (A24), Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street), Danny Boyle's Ink (Netflix), James Gray's Paper Tiger (Neon), and Pixar's Toy Story 5. Major threats include Obsession, the Michael Jackson biopic Michael, Fatherland, and All of a Sudden.
In the directing race, Nolan is the frontrunner, positioned for a possible repeat of his Oppenheimer triumph, with McDonagh, La Bola Negra co-directors Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, and Mungiu in the top tier. In the acting categories, the best actor focus falls on Matt Damon of The Odyssey and John Malkovich of Wild Horse Nine, who just won the best actor prize at the Venice Film Festival; Julianne Moore's performance in The Debut leads the best actress field; Paul Giamatti of The Debut and Sam Rockwell of Wild Horse Nine head the supporting actor race; and Anne Hathaway of The Odyssey and Penélope Cruz of La Bola Negra lead the supporting actress standings.
On the international and animation fronts, La Bola Negra — Spain's submission for best international feature, and a winner of the Toronto film festival's People's Choice Award — is regarded as one of the strongest contenders in that category, while Toy Story 5, which also cracks the best picture top 10, is favored to lead the animated feature race. With nominations voting not scheduled until January 11–15, 2027, and several major contenders still to open and precursor awards still to come, Feinberg's standings are expected to shift repeatedly before the nominations are set.
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图片来源：图：洛杉矶（Los Angeles）杜比剧院内的奥斯卡颁奖典礼现场（资料图），第99届奥斯卡颁奖典礼将于2027年3月14日在此举行。Timothy A. Gonsalves 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0（经 Wikimedia Commons）。Photo: Inside the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, home of the Academy Awards (file photo). By Timothy A. Gonsalves, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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