9月批发通胀大超预期：PPI环比涨1.3%创四年最大升幅，零售销售增0.8%多半靠加油站
华盛顿讯——美国劳工部10月15日公布，9月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨1.3%，为2022年3月以来最大单月升幅，远超道琼斯调查经济学家预期的0.6%；同比上涨6.3%，为2022年12月以来最高，高于8月的5.6%。本站今晨已预告该数据与9月零售销售同日发布，结果显示，批发端通胀压力主要来自能源价格飙升。
分项看，最终需求能源价格单月大涨10.8%，其中汽油价格上涨20.3%，柴油、取暖油涨幅也在两成上下；能源一项贡献了本月PPI总升幅的八成以上。食品价格上涨1.2%。剔除食品与能源的核心PPI环比上涨0.7%、同比上涨5.0%，同样高于预期，显示涨价压力正在向其他环节传导：最终需求商品价格上涨2.6%，服务价格上涨0.8%、为今年1月以来最快，其中贸易服务价格涨1.4%，运输与仓储价格涨3.4%。
同日公布的商务部数据显示，9月零售销售环比增长0.8%，高于市场预期，但低于8月修正后的1.3%。据美联社分析，加油站贡献了本月零售额增量的约七成，汽油站销售额随油价上涨增长6.4%；剔除汽车与加油站后，零售销售仅增0.2%，直接计入国内生产总值核算的「控制组」仅增0.1%。餐饮与酒吧场所销售额增长1.1%，汽车销售微增0.2%。
两份数据叠加周三公布的9月消费者价格指数（同比涨3.7%），使美联储10月27日至28日会议上的加息讨论升温。据CME「美联储观察」工具，期货市场对本月加息25个基点的定价概率已升至约三成，明显高于一周前的不到两成。美联储9月16日刚将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至3.75%至4.00%。
Producer Prices Jump 1.3% in September, the Most Since 2022, as Energy Costs Surge
WASHINGTON — The U.S. producer price index rose 1.3% in September from the previous month, the largest monthly gain since March 2022 and far above the 0.6% increase expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the Labor Department said on October 15. From a year earlier, producer prices rose 6.3%, the biggest annual increase since December 2022, up from 5.6% in August. As GSM previewed this morning, the data landed the same day as the September retail sales report, and it showed wholesale inflation pressure driven mainly by surging energy costs.
Final-demand energy prices jumped 10.8% in the month, with gasoline up 20.3% and diesel and heating oil rising by roughly a fifth as well; energy accounted for more than 80% of the monthly increase in the headline index. Food prices rose 1.2%. Core producer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7% on the month and 5.0% from a year earlier — also above forecasts — suggesting higher fuel costs are spilling into other categories. Final-demand goods prices rose 2.6%, while services rose 0.8%, the fastest since January, as trade margins climbed 1.4% and transportation and warehousing costs rose 3.4%.
Separately, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating expectations but slowing from August's revised 1.3% gain. According to Associated Press analysis, gas stations accounted for about 71% of the month's dollar increase, with gasoline station sales up 6.4% on higher prices. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose just 0.2%, and the "control group" that feeds into GDP calculations rose only 0.1%. Sales at eating and drinking places rose 1.1%, while auto sales edged up 0.2%.
Together with Wednesday's consumer price report — headline CPI up 3.7% from a year earlier — the data has intensified debate over a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, futures markets now price the probability of a 25-basis-point hike this month at roughly 30%, up from less than 20% a week earlier. The Fed last raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：位于华盛顿特区的美国劳工部总部大楼（弗朗西斯·帕金斯大楼，Frances Perkins Building）。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，ajay_suresh 摄，CC BY 2.0 授权。 The Frances Perkins Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Labor, in Washington, D.C. Photo: ajay_suresh / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
