西班牙官方民调：社会党支持率34%扩大领先、与人民党差距拉大至11.8个百分点
西班牙官方民调机构社会学研究中心（CIS）10月14日发布10月常规民意调查，结果引人注目：执政的社会党得票率估计为34.0%，领先人民党的22.2%和 Vox 党的17.1%，两大党差距达11.8个百分点，而9月时差距为5.5个百分点。这项编号3582的调查在10月1日至6日电话访问了5025人，误差幅度为正负1.4个百分点。
与9月的调查相比，社会党上升了3个百分点，人民党下降3.3个百分点；Vox 党的17.1%逼近其历史最好水平。Sumar 以「广泛阵线」的名义列为6.1%，Podemos 为3.1%。
CIS 公布的直接投票意向差距较小：社会党25.3%，人民党14.7%。
这项调查在10月5日提前大选宣布之前进行、在竞选正酣时公布，遭到反对派质疑：各家私人机构的民调都显示人民党明显领先，而 CIS 负责人由政府任命，其调查屡屡被批有偏向性。CIS 主席坚持称，该中心沿用的是数十年来的同一套方法。（来源：西班牙社会学研究中心）
CIS October Barometer: Socialists Open 11.8-Point Lead Over PP, 34.0% to 22.2%
Spain's state pollster, the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), published its October barometer on October 14 with a striking result: the governing Socialist Party (PSOE) leads with 34.0% of estimated vote, ahead of the Popular Party (PP) at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%, a gap of 11.8 points between the two main parties, up from 5.5 points in September. The study (No. 3582) is based on 5,025 telephone interviews carried out from October 1 to 6, with a margin of error of 1.4 points.
The socialists gained three points on September's barometer while the PP lost 3.3 points. Vox, at 17.1%, approaches its all-time high in the series. Sumar, under the Frente Amplio label, stands at 6.1% and Podemos at 3.1%.
The CIS raw vote intention is tighter: 25.3% for the PSOE against 14.7% for the PP.
The barometer was fielded before the snap election was called on October 5 and published in the middle of the campaign, where it has been received with scepticism by the opposition: private pollsters give the PP a clear lead, and the CIS, headed by a government appointee, has faced recurring criticism of bias. Its president maintains the centre applies the same method it has used for decades. (Source: Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), Spain)
来源：西班牙社会学研究中心
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：透明票箱中的选票（资料图）。Wikimedia Commons 开放授权。 / Photo: A transparent ballot box in Spain (file photo). Wikimedia Commons, open license.
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