穆迪摘掉美国最后一个最高信用评级：长期评级由Aaa下调至Aa1
评级机构穆迪（Moody's Ratings）2025年5月16日在纽约宣布，把美国政府的长期发行人评级与高级无担保评级由最高等级Aaa下调一档至Aa1，评级展望由负面调整为稳定。穆迪是三大评级机构中最后一家维持美国最高评级的机构，此次下调后，美国在三家机构均已失去最高评级。
穆迪表示，这次在其21档评级体系中下调一档，反映的是十多年来美国政府债务与利息支付比率不断攀升、已显著高于评级相近的主权国家。穆迪说：「历届美国政府与国会都未能就扭转巨额年度财政赤字与利息成本上升趋势的措施达成一致。我们不认为，当前正在审议的财政方案能带来强制性支出与赤字的实质性多年削减。」
穆迪预计，未来十年，随着福利性支出增加而政府收入大致持平，联邦赤字将进一步扩大，政府债务与利息负担随之加重，美国的财政表现相对于自身过去和其他高评级主权国家都将恶化。穆迪预计，联邦债务负担到2035年将升至国内生产总值（GDP）的约134%，高于2024年的98%；联邦赤字占GDP的比重将由2024年的6.4%扩大到2035年的接近9%。
展望调整为稳定，穆迪给出的理由是美国仍保留突出的信用优势，包括经济的规模、韧性与活力，以及美元的全球储备货币地位；穆迪同时预计，美国将延续由独立的美联储主导的有效货币政策的长久记录，三权分立的宪法安排也使政策效力在长期内相对不受短期事件影响。
此前，标准普尔已于2011年把美国评级下调至AA+，惠誉于2023年8月跟进下调至AA+，穆迪当时只把展望调整为负面、保住了Aaa评级至今。穆迪此次宣布下调，恰在国会审议总统减税与支出法案之时，众议院预算委员会同一天一度否决该法案。
财政部长 Scott Bessent 5月18日接受全国广播公司（NBC）采访时称，穆迪的评级是「滞后指标」，并表示现政府正致力于削减支出、通过放松监管带动增长。（来源：穆迪）
Moody's Strips the United States of Its Last Top Credit Rating, Cutting It to Aa1 from Aaa
Moody's Ratings announced in New York on May 16, 2025, that it had downgraded the Government of the United States of America's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, and changed the outlook to stable from negative. Moody's was the last of the three major rating agencies still rating the United States at its highest grade; with this cut, the United States no longer holds a top rating from any of the three agencies.
Moody's said the one-notch downgrade on its 21-notch scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns. "Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's said. "We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration."
Over the next decade, Moody's expects larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat, driving the government's debt and interest burden higher and causing U.S. fiscal performance to deteriorate relative to its own past and to other highly rated sovereigns. Moody's anticipates the federal debt burden will rise to about 134% of GDP by 2035, compared with 98% in 2024, and that the federal deficit will widen from 6.4% of GDP in 2024 to nearly 9% by 2035.
The stable outlook, Moody's said, reflects balanced risks at Aa1: the United States retains exceptional credit strengths, including the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. Moody's also expects the United States to continue its long history of very effective monetary policy led by an independent Federal Reserve, and said the constitutional separation of powers contributes to policy effectiveness over time.
Standard & Poor's had cut the U.S. rating to AA+ in 2011 and Fitch followed with a cut to AA+ in August 2023; Moody's at that time only moved its outlook to negative, keeping the Aaa rating until now. The downgrade came as Congress was considering the president's tax-and-spending bill, which the House Budget Committee initially voted down the same day.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview with NBC on May 18, called Moody's a "lagging indicator" and said the administration was working to cut spending and spur growth through deregulation. (Source: Moody's Ratings)
来源：穆迪
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于华盛顿哥伦比亚特区的美国财政部大楼黄昏外景（资料图），前为首任财政部长汉密尔顿雕像。Wisneyykarin 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C., at dusk (file photo), with the statue of Alexander Hamilton in front. Wisneyykarin, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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