USC民调：Wiener以47%领先陈诗敏41%，旧金山国会选战胶着
位于加利福尼亚州旧金山县的旧金山第 11 国会选区选战出现首份独立民调。南加州大学（USC）民主与公平选举实验室公布的民调显示，在接替即将退休的 Nancy Pelosi 的选战中，州参议员 Scott Wiener 以 47% 的支持率领先旧金山市议员、华裔候选人陈诗敏（Connie Chan）的 41%，9% 的选民尚未决定。民调于 10 月 16 日至 19 日对 454 名可能选民进行，误差范围为正负 4.6 个百分点，Wiener 的领先优势在误差范围之内，选举日为 11 月 3 日。
民调显示，Pelosi 的背书并未完全转化为对陈诗敏的支持：即便在对 Pelosi 持好感的选民中，Wiener 也略占上风。两人的支持者结构分化明显：陈诗敏在自认“非常自由派”、民主社会主义者、独立选民和低收入群体中占优；Wiener 则在坚定认同民主党、年收入 10 万美元以上的选民中领先。USC 政治学教授 Christian Grose 指出，中期选举中投票意愿更强的选民似乎更倾向 Wiener，但民调并未排除陈诗敏获胜的可能。
这是该选区目前唯一一份独立民调，问卷以英文、中文、西班牙文、韩文和越南文五种语言进行。陈诗敏出生于香港，十几岁时移民美国，若当选将成为首位代表旧金山的亚裔国会议员，华裔选民的投票动向被视为左右选战的关键变量。
关联：伯克利集会：陈诗敏抨击对手获AI公司背景超级PAC 350万美元支持
USC poll: Wiener leads Connie Chan 47% to 41% in San Francisco congressional race
SAN FRANCISCO, California — The first independent poll is out in the race for San Francisco's 11th Congressional District, in San Francisco County, California. A survey by the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future's democracy and equity lab shows state Senator Scott Wiener leading San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, the Chinese American candidate, 47% to 41%, with 9% undecided, in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi. The poll of 454 likely voters was conducted October 16-19 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 points, putting Wiener's lead within the margin ahead of the November 3 election.
Pelosi's endorsement has not fully transferred to Chan: even among voters who view Pelosi favorably, Wiener edges ahead. The coalitions split sharply — Chan leads among very liberal voters, democratic socialists, independents and lower-income voters, while Wiener leads among strong Democrats and voters earning over $100,000. USC political science professor Christian Grose noted that higher-propensity midterm voters appear to lean toward Wiener, but the poll does not rule out a Chan victory.
It is the only independent poll of the district so far, conducted in English, Chinese, Spanish, Korean and Vietnamese. Chan was born in Hong Kong and immigrated to the United States as a teenager; if elected, she would be the first Asian American to represent San Francisco in Congress, making Chinese American turnout a closely watched variable.
Related: Berkeley rally: Connie Chan blasts rival backed by $3.5M AI-linked super PAC
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：陈诗敏官方肖像。图片：旧金山市议会，公有领域，经Wikimedia Commons。 / Official portrait of Connie Chan. Photo: San Francisco Board of Supervisors, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
