美国9月非农爆冷仅增2.9万，加息预期降温美股全线反弹
美国劳工部10月2日发布的9月非农就业报告大爆冷：新增非农就业人数为2.9万人，远低于市场预期的9万人；8月数据从初值16.2万人下修至13.3万人；失业率从8月的4.1%小幅升至4.2%。薪资增长同样不及预期，平均时薪环比仅上涨0.1%，同比上涨3.0%。
这份就业报告是美联储10月议息会议前的最后一份重磅数据。受此影响，加息预期明显降温：CME“美联储观察”工具显示，10月维持利率不变的概率升至77%。美股全线反弹，道指上涨0.5%，标普500涨0.7%，纳斯达克涨1.2%，费城半导体指数大涨2.4%，科技股集体走强。
分析人士认为，这正是市场想要的数据——不热也不冷。高盛预计美联储10月将按兵不动。不过中东局势外溢、能源价格高企、关税政策等因素仍可能在年底至2027年冲击劳动力市场。
US September Payrolls Miss Badly at 29K, Cooling Rate-Hike Bets as Stocks Rally
The US Labor Department's September payrolls report on October 2 missed badly: just 29,000 jobs added versus 90,000 expected; August revised down from 162,000 to 133,000; unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Wage growth also disappointed, with average hourly earnings up just 0.1% month over month.
The report is the last major jobs data before the Fed's October meeting. Rate-hike expectations cooled sharply — CME FedWatch put the odds of no change in October at 77%. Stocks rallied across the board: the Dow up 0.5%, S&P 500 up 0.7%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 2.4%.
Analysts called it a Goldilocks print — not too hot, not too cold. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to hold in October. But Middle East spillover, high energy prices and tariff policy could still hit the labor market late this year into 2027.
图片来源：图片来源：U.S. Army Corps of Engineers / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)