库克政治报告下调佛蒙特州长选情评级 由「稳固共和党」改为「倾向共和党」
据库克政治报告（Cook Political Report）10月13日发布的州长选情分析，该机构将佛蒙特州州长选举的评级从「稳固共和党」（Solid Republican）下调为「倾向共和党」（Likely Republican）；同一批调整中，内布拉斯加州与俄克拉荷马州的州长选情也被移出「稳固共和党」一档。WAMC同日（10月13日下午4时45分）报道称，这是共和党现任州长菲尔·斯科特（Phil Scott）任内面临的最胶着的一次连任选战。
斯科特2017年首次就任佛蒙特州州长，任期两年，此前数次连任均以明显优势击败民主党对手。WAMC报道，今年的民调显示，他与民主党挑战者阿曼达·贾努（Amanda Janoo）相比，或处于落后，或仅在误差范围内领先。贾努已获得联邦参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）与前州长霍华德·迪恩（Howard Dean）的背书。
此前两项民调结果并不一致：新罕布什尔大学调查中心9月发布的民调显示贾努以49%对43%领先斯科特；佛蒙特公共广播（Vermont Public）9月28日公布、由Braun Research于9月10日至21日对817人进行的民调则显示斯科特以44%对34%领先，误差范围为正负3.4个百分点。佛蒙特州州长选举将于11月3日大选日投票。
Cook Political Report Shifts Vermont Governor's Race From Solid Republican to Likely Republican
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of Vermont's gubernatorial race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in an analysis published on October 13, listing Vermont alongside Nebraska and Oklahoma as states moving out of the Solid Republican column. WAMC, reporting the same day (October 13 at 4:45 p.m.), described the contest as the tightest reelection race of Republican Governor Phil Scott's tenure.
Scott was sworn into his first two-year term in 2017 and has handily defeated Democratic opponents in each of his previous reelection bids. This year, WAMC reported, polls show him either behind or within the margin of error against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. Janoo has been endorsed by U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and former Governor Howard Dean.
Two recent polls pointed in different directions. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released in September put Janoo ahead of Scott, 49% to 43%. A Vermont Public poll released on September 28, conducted by Braun Research among 817 people from September 10 to 21 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, put Scott ahead, 44% to 34%. Vermont's governor will be chosen in the November 3 general election.
图片来源：佛蒙特州议会大厦，位于蒙彼利埃（资料图）。Harrison Keely 摄，CC BY 4.0，维基共享资源
