戴蒙德89岁新书追问：领导者何时才真正改变历史
洛杉矶——加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLA）地理学荣休教授、普利策奖得主贾雷德·戴蒙德（Jared Diamond）的新书《利润、先知、教练与国王：领导者（何时）真正重要？》（Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter?）已于2026年9月1日由Mariner Books在美国出版，英国版由Allen Lane推出。UCLA杂志2026年秋季号以专文介绍这部新作，UCLA Newsroom 10月14日的每日摘要再度予以推荐。
在这部新书中，戴蒙德把他以往著作中的大问题推进到“个人”层面：一位领导者究竟在多大程度上改变了历史走向，还是说换一个人，结果也大同小异？他以历史与政治、商业、体育、宗教四个领域的人物为案例，提出他所称的“哈姆雷特测试”——假设抽去这个人，事情是否仍会以大体相同的方式发生。书中个案包括博茨瓦纳首任总统塞雷茨·卡马、环保运动先驱蕾切尔·卡森、UCLA传奇篮球教练约翰·伍登、美式橄榄球教练比尔·贝利奇克等。据戴蒙德在访谈中的概括，地理与环境等因素主导着长期、大范围的历史进程，而领导者个人的作用更多体现在短期、较小范围的结果上，一位领导者何时起决定作用，取决于可以辨识的具体条件。
戴蒙德生于1937年9月10日，新书出版后不久即满89岁。他1968年加入UCLA，曾任生理学教授，后任地理学教授。他1997年出版的《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》获普利策奖，本人并获美国国家科学奖章；其他代表作包括《崩溃》《动荡》等。
At 89, Jared Diamond Asks When Leaders Truly Matter in "Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings"
LOS ANGELES — "Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter?," the new book by Jared Diamond, professor emeritus of geography at UCLA and a Pulitzer Prize winner, was published in the United States by Mariner Books on September 1, 2026, with a British edition from Allen Lane. UCLA Magazine featured the book in its Fall 2026 issue, and the UCLA Newsroom highlighted it again in its October 14 daily digest.
In the book, Diamond turns his career-long interest in large historical questions to the role of the individual: how much do particular leaders actually change the course of events, and when would much the same outcome have occurred anyway? Working through cases from four realms — history and politics, business, sport and religion — he applies what he calls the "Hamlet test," asking whether events would have unfolded in much the same way without the person in question. His subjects include Seretse Khama, the founding president of Botswana; environmentalist Rachel Carson; legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden; and football coach Bill Belichick. As Diamond has summarized his argument in interviews, geographic and environmental factors dominate long-term, large-scale historical patterns, while individual leaders exert their greatest influence over shorter-term, smaller-scale outcomes, and whether a leader proves decisive depends on identifiable conditions.
Diamond was born on September 10, 1937, and turned 89 shortly after the book appeared. He joined UCLA in 1968, serving first as a professor of physiology and later as a professor of geography. His 1997 book "Guns, Germs, and Steel" won the Pulitzer Prize, and he is a recipient of the U.S. National Medal of Science. His other books include "Collapse" and "Upheaval."
图片来源：贾雷德·戴蒙德演讲照（资料图）。HiraV／Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 3.0
