IMF预测阿联酋经济2026年萎缩3.9%：较4月预测下调7个百分点，迪拜同日公布2.1万亿迪拉姆项目计划
据《国家报》和《海湾时报》对国际货币基金组织（IMF）10月《世界经济展望》的报道，IMF预计阿联酋经济今年将萎缩3.9%，2027年则增长7.7%。
这一数字较IMF 4月预测的增长3.1%大幅下调，幅度达7个百分点。据《国家报》报道，IMF的反弹预期以航运航线恢复正常为前提，其情景假设霍尔木兹海峡从明年3月起逐步重新开放，并在10月恢复到冲突前状况；IMF预计不确定性在明年全年仍将居高不下。展望还预计阿联酋今年通胀率为4.5%，高于2025年的1.3%。
同一天，迪拜公布了其项目计划。谢赫穆罕默德·本·拉希德在穆罕默德·本·拉希德领袖论坛上公布的数据显示，迪拜在建项目总值达2.1万亿迪拉姆。其中包括到2030年价值1.1万亿迪拉姆的房地产项目、1280亿迪拉姆的阿勒马克图姆国际机场项目，以及3280亿迪拉姆的阿联酋航空与迪拜航空机队扩张计划。谢赫穆罕默德在X上写道："我们的征程正在加速，而不是放慢。"报道指出，IMF的产出预测与迪拜公布的多年期投资承诺涵盖的是不同范畴；项目对产出的贡献取决于工程实际推进的时间。
IMF Sees UAE Economy Shrinking 3.9% in 2026 as Dubai Unveils Dh2.1 Trillion Project Pipeline
The International Monetary Fund expects the UAE economy to shrink by 3.9% this year, before growing by 7.7% in 2027, according to its October World Economic Outlook, as reported by The National and Khaleej Times.
The new forecast is a seven-percentage-point downgrade from the 3.1% growth the fund expected in April. The National reported that the IMF's expected recovery depends on shipping routes returning to normal, with its scenario assuming a gradual reopening of Hormuz from March next year and pre-conflict conditions returning by October; the fund expects uncertainty to remain elevated throughout next year. The outlook also puts UAE inflation at 4.5% this year, compared with 1.3% in 2025, according to Aletihad.
On Tuesday, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid set out Dubai's project plans. Figures presented at the Mohammed bin Rashid Leadership Forum put the value of projects under way at Dh2.1 trillion, including Dh1.1 trillion in real estate projects through 2030, Dh128 billion for Al Maktoum International Airport and Dh328 billion for Emirates and flydubai fleet expansion, Gulf News reported, citing the Dubai Media Office. "Our journey is accelerating, not slowing down," Sheikh Mohammed wrote on X.
The forecast and the project plans cover different things: economic output over a year, and investment commitments extending well beyond it; the projects' contribution to output depends on when work is carried out.
图片来源：图：阿布扎比滨海大道天际线（黄昏）。摄影：FritzDaCat，CC BY-SA 3.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
