穆迪：南非有望迎来2009年以来首次评级上调，关键看财政表现
据彭博社经Moneyweb 10月14日报道，穆迪评级表示，只要南非的财政表现持续改善，该国正朝着2009年以来首次获得穆迪评级上调的方向前进。
穆迪给予南非的评级为Ba2，比投资级低两档；该机构今年5月已将南非的评级展望从"稳定"上调为"正面"。穆迪称，在稳定债务并推进促增长的经济改革后，南非已到达一个转折点。穆迪副总裁埃文·沃尔曼周二在线上媒体吹风会上说："如果财政表现持续改善，我们可能上调南非的评级。"他表示，评估将取决于对该国信用状况未来走向的信心。
财政部长埃诺赫·戈东瓜纳将于10月21日发表中期预算评估，预计在收入增加的背景下，将显示基本预算盈余持续增长。沃尔曼表示，基线预测是：上一财年达到国内生产总值87%峰值的债务，将在本十年末逐步降至84%，经济产出回升将为此提供支持。
报道称，非洲最大经济体南非过去十年平均增速不到1%，但结构性改革开始见效：莱利银行集团预测未来两年增速将升至1.9%，到2030年可能达到2.5%。穆迪的历史记录显示，获正面展望的主权信用中约60%最终获得上调。穆迪同时表示，恢复南非的投资级评级可能仍需时日，并认为即将到来的选举周期导致政策逆转的风险有限。南非将于11月4日举行市政选举。
Moody's Says South Africa Is on the Right Track for Its First Ratings Upgrade Since 2009
South Africa is heading in the right direction for its first credit-rating upgrade by Moody's Ratings since 2009, provided the country's fiscal performance continues to improve, Bloomberg reported via Moneyweb on October 14. The agency, which rates South Africa Ba2 — two notches below investment grade — revised South Africa's credit outlook to positive from stable in May. It says the country has reached an inflection point after stabilising its debt and delivering pro-growth economic reforms. "We could upgrade South Africa's rating if fiscal performance continues to improve," Evan Wohlmann, a vice president at Moody's, told a virtual media briefing on Tuesday. The assessment would hinge on confidence in how the credit profile will evolve, he said.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers his mid-term budget review on October 21 and is expected to show continued growth in the country's primary budget surplus amid higher income. Wohlmann said the baseline forecast was for debt that peaked in the last fiscal year at 87% of gross domestic product to gradually decline to 84% of GDP by the end of the decade, supported by an uptick in economic output.
Africa's largest economy has expanded by less than 1% on average over the past decade, but structural reforms are beginning to deliver, with Nedbank Group predicting growth will edge up to 1.9% in the next two years, with 2.5% possible by 2030. Moody's track record shows it upgrades about 60% of the sovereign credits it assigns a positive outlook. Still, restoring South Africa's investment-grade rating may take some time. Moody's also said it sees the risk of a policy reversal from the forthcoming electoral cycle as limited; the country holds municipal elections on November 4.
图片来源：约翰内斯堡天际线。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，Mark Hillary 摄，CC BY 2.0 授权
