意大利工业联合会上调今年增长预期至1% 料2027年放缓至0.6%
意大利主要工商游说组织工业联合会（Confindustria）10月14日发布半年度报告，预计意大利经济今年将增长1%，较其3月份给出的0.5%预测大幅上调，但同时警告2027年经济将再度放缓。
报告称，今年展望改善，很大程度上得益于欧盟新冠疫情后复苏资金（PNRR）拉动了投资，并使上半年增长强于预期；中东局势推高全球油价的幅度小于预期，能源成本向其他商品和服务价格的传导也弱于担忧。不过，报告预计下半年季度增长将较为疲弱。
工业联合会预计，2027年增长率将放缓至0.6%，原因包括 PNRR 计划结束、近期油价上涨，以及通胀和利率上升。该组织对2026年的增长预测与梅洛尼政府一致；政府对2027年的预测为0.8%。意大利去年经济增长0.6%。
财政与通胀方面，工业联合会预计2026年预算赤字占国内生产总值之比为2.9%，与政府预测一致；同时大幅上调2026年平均通胀率预测，由2.5%升至3.2%，并预计2027年通胀将回落至2.2%。Italy's economy will grow by 1% this year, the country's main business lobby Confindustria forecast on Wednesday, hiking a previous 0.5% estimate made in March but warning that a renewed slowdown is expected in 2027, Reuters reported from Rome on October 14.
Confindustria Lifts Italy's 2026 Growth Forecast to 1%, Sees Slowdown to 0.6% in 2027
The improved outlook this year is thanks in large measure to European Union post-COVID-19 funds (PNRR), which have boosted investments and ensured firmer-than-expected growth in the first two quarters, Confindustria said in its twice-yearly report. It said turmoil in the Middle East had driven up global oil prices by less than expected, and that in Italy the pass-through from energy costs to prices of other goods and services has been weaker than feared. However, quarterly growth in the second half of the year will be weak.
Growth will slow to 0.6% in 2027 due to the end of the PNRR, the recent rise in oil prices, and higher inflation and interest rates, the lobby said. Confindustria's 2026 growth forecast of 1%is in line with that of Giorgia Meloni's government; for 2027 the government forecasts 0.8%.Growth last year came in at 0.6%.
Confindustria forecast the 2026 budget deficit-to-GDP ratio at 2.9%, in line with the government. It sharply hiked its forecast for Italy's 2026 average inflation rate to 3.2% from 2.5%, and forecast inflation would ease to 2.2% in 2027.
图片来源：意大利首都罗马的斗兽场（资料图）。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，Dennis G. Jarvis 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0 授权
