美联储褐皮书：近几周美国经济以轻微至温和速度增长，部分地区价格压力增强，燃料附加费把成本传导至供应链
华盛顿——美国联邦储备委员会10月14日发布最新一期《褐皮书》报告。报告依据截至10月5日收集的信息、由美联储12家地区储备银行汇总各自辖区企业等联系人的反映编制；美联储说明，该文件汇总的是美联储系统之外联系人的意见，并非美联储官员的评论。
报告称，自上一期《褐皮书》以来，12个辖区中2个辖区经济活动温和增长，3个适度增长，4个轻微增长，3个没有显著变化。制造业方面，达拉斯辖区制造业强劲、广泛的增长带动了该辖区的温和增长；另有6个辖区的制造业企业报告适度至温和增长；其余5个辖区制造业几乎没有增长。报告称，其他行业整体增长有限。
消费方面，多数辖区报告整体消费支出几乎没有变化；报告汽车销售情况的6个辖区中，有5个辖区汽车销售持平至适度下降；过半数辖区指出，消费支出由高收入家庭驱动。旅游业继续增长，但波士顿、明尼阿波利斯和旧金山辖区报告来自加拿大游客的销售下降。多数辖区的企业对未来数月保持积极展望，但预期仅为轻微增长、偏重制造业，并受到持续不确定性的拖累。
就业方面，多数辖区称整体就业水平几乎没有净变化，其中3个辖区就业适度增加、5个轻微增加、4个没有显著变化；劳动力供给总体足以满足需求，但专业、技术和熟练技工岗位仍短缺。5个辖区报告，一些企业通过自然减员减少了人员、推迟了招聘，或因投资人工智能提高生产率而预计减少新增岗位。工资方面，5个辖区整体工资适度增长，4个辖区温和增长，2个辖区轻微增长。
价格方面，3个辖区称整体价格增长强劲，8个辖区称温和，其中3个辖区称投入价格压力正在增强；1个辖区为适度增长；4个辖区称价格上涨速度较上一统计期加快。报告称，更高的油价出现在所有辖区的报告中；企业表示柴油价格高企，燃料附加费正把增加的成本沿供应链传导。多个辖区的联系人还提到其他大宗商品、关税和保险带来的持续价格压力。面对消费者的企业表示利润空间收紧，因为对价格敏感的顾客继续抵制涨价。数个辖区的企业预计，随着现有合同到期、需要就自身投入品重新谈判对冲合同或与客户重谈交付合同，未来数月价格将进一步上涨。
路透社同日报道称，这份报告显示美国就业市场仍处于招聘与解雇均低迷的状态，全国部分地区通胀正在增强。
Fed Beige Book: US Economy Grew at a Slight-to-Moderate Pace in Recent Weeks as Price Pressures Intensified in Some Districts and Fuel Surcharges Passed Costs Through Supply Chains
Washington — The Federal Reserve on October 14 released its latest Beige Book report, compiled by the Fed's 12 regional Reserve Banks from reports by business and other contacts in each district, based on information collected on or before October 5. The Fed says the document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Since the prior Beige Book, two of the twelve districts reported moderate growth in economic activity, three reported modest growth, four reported slight growth, and three reported no significant change, the report said. Robust, broad-based growth in manufacturing led the moderate growth reported in the Dallas district; another six districts reported modest to moderate growth from their manufacturing firms, while the remaining five districts noted little or no manufacturing growth. Reports on other sectors indicated little growth overall.
Most districts reported little or no change in overall consumer spending. Auto contacts noted flat to modestly lower sales in five of the six districts that reported, and over half of the districts noted that consumer spending was driven by high-income households. Tourism continued to grow, but firms in the Boston, Minneapolis and San Francisco districts noted a decline in sales from Canadian tourists. Most districts reported that firms maintained a positive outlook for the coming months, but expectations tended to be for slight growth, weighted toward manufacturing and burdened by persistent uncertainties.
On labor markets, most districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, with three districts describing modest increases, five slight increases, and four no significant change. Labor supply was generally adequate to meet demand, though shortages persisted for specialized, technical, and skilled trade workers. Five districts reported that some firms had reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring, or anticipated less job creation after increasing productivity by investing in AI. Five districts described moderate growth in overall wages, four reported modest growth, and two reported slight growth.
On prices, three districts characterized overall price growth as robust, eight noted that growth was moderate — three of the eight noting that input price pressures were intensifying — and one district reported modest price growth. Four districts reported that the pace of price increases had picked up since the prior period. Higher oil prices permeated all district reports; firms reported elevated diesel prices and noted that fuel surcharges were passing on increased costs throughout the supply chain. Contacts in multiple districts also noted continued price pressure from other commodities, tariffs, and insurance. Consumer-facing firms noted tighter profit margins as price-sensitive customers continued to resist price hikes, and firms in several districts said they expected prices to increase further in the coming months.
Reuters reported the same day that the survey showed the US labor market remained in a low-hire, low-fire state and that inflation was intensifying across parts of the country.
图片来源：图：美联储总部埃克尔斯大楼（华盛顿，资料图）。Federalreserve／Wikimedia Commons，公共领域
