IMF上修台湾2026年经济成长率至10.7%居亚太之冠，AI晶片需求为主要推手
台北——据中央社与路透社报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）10月13日在华府举行的IMF与世界银行年会期间发布最新《世界经济展望》报告，将台湾2026年经济成长率预估上修至10.7%，居亚太地区之冠，主要推手是全球对人工智慧晶片的强劲需求。中央社13日晚间即以台湾成长率「破10%」为题，报道这项在年会期间公布的更新。
IMF在报告中指出，台湾与韩国合计供应了全球AI相关运算零组件净贸易的62%，在这波AI投资浪潮中地位关键。同次调整中，韩国2026年成长率预估同样获上修至3.3%，印度上修0.6个百分点至7.0%，中国则下修至4.5%（相较7月预估）。与会的经济学者在年会场边向中央社表示，AI晶片需求确实推升台湾的经济展望，但也建议台湾分散产业结构，避免过度依赖单一产业，以降低景气循环反转时的冲击。
国内机构先前已相继上修台湾景气预测：主计总处8月14日将2026年成长率预估调高至11.05%，为1987年以来最快，1987年当年的成长率为12.75%；中央银行9月17日上修至11.48%，同时维持政策利率2%不变。台湾经济2025年成长8.76%，今年第2季成长率达12.93%，动能主要来自AI供应链出口。受惠于AI热潮，台股加权指数今年以来累计上涨约67%，IMF的最新上修与国内机构的看法相互呼应。《世界经济展望》是IMF每年春秋两季的旗舰报告，秋季版例行于年会期间在华府发布，各国财金官员与市场机构齐聚年会，报告中的国别预测因此格外受到瞩目。
IMF Raises Taiwan's 2026 Growth Forecast to 10.7%, Highest in Asia-Pacific, on AI Chip Demand
Taipei — The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for Taiwan to 10.7 percent in its latest World Economic Outlook, released on October 13 during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, the Central News Agency and Reuters reported. The forecast is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region, driven mainly by surging global demand for artificial intelligence chips, and the Central News Agency headlined the update on the evening of October 13 as Taiwan's growth breaking into double digits.
The IMF noted that Taiwan and South Korea together account for 62 percent of net trade in AI-related computing components, giving the two economies a pivotal place in the AI investment wave. In the same update, South Korea's 2026 growth forecast was also raised, to 3.3 percent; India's was lifted by 0.6 percentage point to 7.0 percent; and China's was cut to 4.5 percent from the July forecast. Economists attending the annual meetings told the Central News Agency that AI chip demand is indeed lifting Taiwan's outlook, while advising the island to diversify its industrial structure rather than rely too heavily on a single sector, so as to cushion any turn in the cycle.
Domestic forecasters had already moved in the same direction: the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics raised its 2026 growth forecast to 11.05 percent on August 14, the fastest pace since 1987, when growth was 12.75 percent, and the central bank lifted its forecast to 11.48 percent on September 17 while holding its policy rate at 2 percent. Taiwan's economy grew 8.76 percent in 2025 and expanded 12.93 percent in the second quarter of this year, powered largely by AI supply-chain exports. Riding the AI boom, the Taiex has gained about 67 percent so far this year, and the IMF's latest upgrade echoes the domestic consensus. The World Economic Outlook is the IMF's flagship report, published each spring and fall; the fall edition is traditionally released in Washington during the annual meetings, when finance officials and market institutions from around the world are gathered, which gives its country forecasts an outsized audience.
图片来源：华盛顿特区国际货币基金组织总部大楼外墙标志，Marek Ślusarczyk 摄，CC BY 3.0（Wikimedia Commons）
