民调持续胶着：俄勒冈州长竞选评级下调至「微倾民主党」，44年民主党连胜受考验
俄勒冈州州长竞选进入最后三周，选情持续胶着。两份最新民调均显示，民主党现任州长蒂娜·科泰克与共和党挑战者、州参议员克里斯汀·德拉赞的支持率在误差范围内：由《俄勒冈人报》委托DHM Research所做的民调显示科泰克领先2个百分点（误差范围4.2个百分点），科泰克竞选团队向俄勒冈公共广播（OPB）发布的内部民调则显示其领先4个百分点。
福克斯新闻的选举实力评级近日将这场比赛从「倾向民主党」下调为「微倾民主党」。德拉赞2022年曾以不到4个百分点的差距负于科泰克，此后重返州议会，先任众议院少数党领袖，去年又被任命为州参议员，此次是两人的再次对决。共和党州长协会已开始向这场竞选投入资金；若德拉赞获胜，将终结共和党在俄勒冈州长选举中超过四十年的连败纪录。
双方的竞选主轴分明：德拉赞把矛头对准住房负担、无家可归、税收、学校和生活成本等州内议题，称俄勒冈需要改变；科泰克阵营则强调抵御联邦政策对州医疗补助和粮食援助的影响。科泰克竞选团队称，随着选民更了解两位候选人，选情正向州长一方倾斜；德拉赞的顾问则回应称，对手花了五个月才拿出一份自己领先的民调。
俄勒冈在2024年总统选举中以14个百分点的优势支持民主党候选人，但其州长选举历来比总统选举接近得多。本报道仅陈述民调与竞选事实，不代表任何政治立场。
信息来源：福克斯新闻；OPB（经 Seattle Red 等转载）
Oregon Governor's Race a Dead Heat: Rating Shifts to Lean Democrat as 44-Year Democratic Streak Is Tested
Oregon's governor's race remains a dead heat with three weeks to go. Two new polls show Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican challenger state Sen. Christine Drazan within the margin of error: a DHM Research poll commissioned by The Oregonian has Kotek ahead by 2 points (margin of error 4.2 points), while an internal poll released by the Kotek campaign to Oregon Public Broadcasting has her up by 4.
Fox News Power Rankings recently shifted the race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Drazan lost to Kotek by fewer than four points in 2022, returned to the legislature, and now seeks a rematch; the Republican Governors Association is investing in the contest. A Drazan win would end a Republican losing streak in Oregon gubernatorial elections stretching back more than four decades.
The campaigns are running on contrasting frames: Drazan focuses on housing affordability, homelessness, taxes, schools and the cost of living, arguing Oregon needs change, while Kotek's campaign emphasizes pushing back against federal policy affecting the Oregon Health Plan and food assistance. Kotek's communications director said voters are moving toward the governor as they hear more about both candidates; a Drazan consultant responded that it took the opponent five months to field a poll showing her ahead.
Oregon backed the Democratic presidential nominee by 14 points in 2024, but its governor's races have traditionally been far closer. This report states the polling facts without taking a political position.
Sources: Fox News; OPB, via Seattle Red
图片来源：俄勒冈州议会大厦（塞勒姆），公有领域，摄影：M.O. Stevens（Wikimedia Commons）
