民调预测更新：阿约特在新罕布什尔州州长竞选中保持领先
选举预测平台Pollsmax于10月12日更新的新罕布什尔州州长选举预测显示，现任共和党州长凯利·阿约特在11月3日的大选中保持领先。模型给阿约特高达95%的获胜概率，预计得票率为55.6%，民主党挑战者辛德·沃明顿预计得票44.5%，共和党领先幅度约11.1个百分点，该平台将这场选举评为「稳固共和党」。
这一预测基于10万次模拟，综合了民调与选举基本面。民调汇总方面，阿约特以50.3%对40.5%领先，平均优势约9.8个百分点。最近一份由YouGov于10月5日完成的民调显示，阿约特以49%对40%领先；圣安塞尔姆学院9月29日的民调为52%对45%，新罕布什尔大学9月21日的民调则为47%对43%，各家民调差距不一，但阿约特在全部公开民调中均处于领先。
阿约特2025年起担任州长，正寻求第二个两年任期。新罕布什尔州在2024年总统选举中由民主党候选人赢下，但州长选举历来有支持共和党人的传统，这场选举将检验沃明顿能否把该州在联邦层面的民主党倾向转化为州长席位的突破。
选举日为11月3日。竞选最后三周，双方仍在就关税、住房成本和财政问题交锋，但从目前的民调格局看，挑战者需要显著改变选情轨迹。
信息来源：Pollsmax 选举预测（数据更新于2026年10月12日）
Forecast Update: Ayotte Holds Lead in New Hampshire Governor's Race
Pollsmax's updated New Hampshire governor forecast, released Oct. 12, shows Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte holding a clear lead ahead of the Nov. 3 election. The model gives Ayotte a 95% chance of defeating Democrat Cinde Warmington, projecting 55.6% of the vote to Warmington's 44.5% — a Republican margin of 11.1 points — and rates the race Solid Republican.
The forecast, built on 100,000 simulations combining polling and race fundamentals, is consistent with the polling average, which puts Ayotte ahead 50.3% to 40.5%. A YouGov poll completed Oct. 5 had Ayotte up 49% to 40%; Saint Anselm College (Sept. 29) had it 52% to 45%, and the University of New Hampshire (Sept. 21) had it 47% to 43%. Ayotte leads in every public survey released so far.
Ayotte, governor since 2025, is seeking a second two-year term. New Hampshire backed the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election, but voters in the state have a long tradition of electing Republican governors. The race tests whether Warmington can convert the state's federal Democratic lean into a gubernatorial pickup.
Election Day is Nov. 3. With three weeks left, the campaigns continue to clash over tariffs, housing costs and state finances, but the challenger must still change the trajectory of the race.
Source: Pollsmax 2026 New Hampshire Governor Forecast (updated Oct. 12, 2026)
图片来源：新罕布什尔州议会大厦，CC BY-SA 3.0，摄影：AlexiusHoratius（Wikimedia Commons）
