UCLA 研究：2024 年全球极端降雨破纪录，四成增幅归因人为变暖，2027 年或再创新高
加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLA）发布新闻稿介绍一项新研究：2024 年全球极端降雨创下纪录，人为引起的气候变暖可解释其中约四成的增幅；研究人员表示，当前正在形成的厄尔尼诺与 2024 年那次有诸多相似之处，2027 年极端降雨有可能再创纪录。
这项研究 10 月 9 日发表于《科学进展》（Science Advances），由 UCLA 大气与海洋科学系、气候科学中心科学家查德·萨克雷（Chad Thackeray）领衔。研究发现，2024 年全球极端降水发生频率比基线高出 20%，超过 1983 年、1998 年和 2016 年的强厄尔尼诺年份；除厄尔尼诺外，大西洋、印度洋与太平洋三大热带海域罕见的同步变暖也有贡献。
萨克雷表示："厄尔尼诺与气候变化共同作用下，2024 年创下了全球强降水天数的纪录。""即将到来的这次厄尔尼诺会暖到什么程度，我们正在进入未知领域，但再创 2027 年纪录的条件已经具备。"
研究还发现，与以往强厄尔尼诺年份强降雨多集中在上半年、随热带太平洋夏季降温而消退不同，2024 年即使太平洋降温，全球极端降雨仍在持续，并于 8 月再度激增；研究人员称，这一激增在很大程度上与气候变化有关——大气变暖后能容纳更多水汽，强降雨概率随时间上升。萨克雷表示，到本世纪中叶，类似 2024 年的极端降雨预计将几乎每隔一年就出现一次。
UCLA Study: 2024 Set a Global Extreme-Rainfall Record, and 2027 Could Top It
New UCLA research shows that 2024 broke the record for global extreme rainfall, with human-caused warming explaining about 40% of the increase, and that parallels between the currently forming El Niño and the 2024 event suggest 2027 could set another record. The study, published October 9 in Science Advances and led by Chad Thackeray, a climate scientist in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Center for Climate Science, found that the occurrence of global precipitation extremes in 2024 was 20% higher than the baseline, surpassing the strong El Niños of 1983, 1998 and 2016, with rare simultaneous tropical warming in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans also contributing. "Between El Niño and climate change, 2024 set a global record for the number of days with heavy precipitation," Thackeray said. "We're getting into uncharted territory for how warm the coming El Niño is going to be, but the conditions are there for another record in 2027." Unlike earlier strong El Niños, when heavy precipitation was concentrated in the first half of the year and dissipated as the tropical Pacific cooled in summer, extreme rain continued in 2024 even as the Pacific cooled, surging again in August — a surge the researchers tie largely to climate change, noting that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and the chance of heavy rainfall is increasing over time. By midcentury, Thackeray said, extreme rainfall like that of 2024 would be expected almost every other year.
图片来源：太平洋风暴系统卫星图（示意），GOES 影像：CSU/CIRA 与 NOAA，Wikimedia Commons，公有领域
