决选首份Datafolha民调：弗拉维奥有效票52%对48%领先卢拉
10月13日，巴西权威民调机构Datafolha公布决选阶段备受关注的民调结果。据Folha英文版10月13日报道，在有效票口径下，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗以52%领先现任总统卢拉的48%；这是决选阶段Datafolha的首份调查，此前10月8日公布的版本中，两人投票意向为49%对45%（含空白票与未决定者），同样显示弗拉维奥占先。Newsmax对同一民调的报道亦确认：计入全部回答时，弗拉维奥为49%、卢拉45%，5%表示将投空白或废票，1%未决定；该调查访问2,520名选民，误差幅度为正负2个百分点。
民调公布之际，卢拉阵营正试图扭转首轮落后的气势：10月11日由学生、粉丝群体、社会运动与左翼政党组织的“民主大游行”在圣保罗保利斯塔大道绵延12个街区，全国76座城市同日集会声援。Folha指出，这场动员意在驱散首轮失利后的低迷情绪。
弗拉维奥的领先有其结构性支撑：首轮落选的右翼候选人卡亚多、泽马与排名第三的库里已相继背书，Novo、Podemos、Republicanos等政党以及巴西联盟—进步党联邦也已表态支持；他还在争取中间派的巴西民主运动党（MDB），圣保罗州长塔尔西西奥等人已同意与他会面商谈。
不过，民调机构在首轮曾系统性低估弗拉维奥、低估幅度约2个百分点，这让所有决选数字都须谨慎看待。另一家PoderData/Aya的民调同样显示弗拉维奥以49%对44%领先。距离10月25日投票还有12天，弃票率与中间选民的最后流向仍可能改写结局。
First Datafolha Runoff Poll: Bolsonaro Leads Lula 52 to 48 in Valid Votes
On October 13, Brazil's benchmark pollster Datafolha published its closely watched runoff numbers. Folha's English edition reported that in valid votes, Flavio Bolsonaro leads incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 52 percent to 48 percent — Datafolha's first survey of the runoff phase, following its October 8 release showing 49 percent to 45 percent in raw intentions. Newsmax's report on the same poll confirmed the underlying figures: counting all responses, Bolsonaro had 49 percent and Lula 45 percent, with 5 percent planning a blank or spoiled ballot and 1 percent undecided, in a survey of 2,520 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus two points.
The poll landed as Lula's camp tried to reverse the discouragement of its first-round defeat: the October 11 March for Democracy, organized by students, fan communities, social movements and left-wing parties, stretched across 12 blocks of Sao Paulo's Paulista Avenue, with rallies in 76 cities, according to Folha.
Bolsonaro's lead has structural support: eliminated right-wing candidates Caiado, Zema and third-place finisher Cury have all endorsed him, as have the Novo, Podemos and Republicanos parties and the Uniao Brasil–Progressistas federation. He is also courting the centrist MDB, whose figures including Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas have agreed to meet him to discuss an endorsement.
Caution is still warranted: pollsters systematically understated Bolsonaro by about two points in the first round. A separate PoderData/Aya poll also showed him ahead, 49 percent to 44 percent. With 12 days to the October 25 vote, abstention and the final movement of centrist voters could still rewrite the ending.
图片来源：图：巴西利亚三权广场。摄影：Senado Federal，CC BY 2.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons
