民调：53%选民反对州宪法重新划区修正案，民主党选区重划计划遇逆风
马里兰大学巴尔的摩郡分校政治研究所（UMBC Institute of Politics）公布的最新民调显示，将于11月大选公投的州宪法第3号修正案（Question 3）支持率惨淡。53%的可能选民表示将投反对票，仅25%表示支持，19%尚未决定。该调查于9月22日至27日访问了776名可能选民，误差范围为正负3.5个百分点。
这项由民主党主导的修正案旨在取消州宪法对国会选区“紧凑、连贯”的要求，为州议会重划选区松绑。若通过，拥有绝对多数的民主党州议会将可按自身意愿重新绘制国会选区地图，有望在2028年大选前生效，甚至可能威胁州内唯一的共和党众议员安迪·哈里斯的席位。州长韦斯·摩尔是该修正案的积极推动者，州最高法院此前已裁定其可以出现在选票上。
民调还显示反对情绪跨越党派：74%的共和党人、59%的无党派选民和42%的民主党人表示将投反对票。支持该修正案的“Fight Back Maryland”组织已于上周末启动电视、短信和邮件广告攻势，试图在投票日前扭转局势，但目前仍明显落后。研究所所长米莱亚·克罗默表示，有效的信息传播仍可能改变选情走向。
信息来源：The Baltimore Banner https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/state-government/umbc-poll-redistricting-question-3-QQUMJHNATJF77IX7YZHAU4OL3I/
Poll: 53% of Voters Oppose State Constitutional Redistricting Amendment, Headwinds for Democratic Gerrymandering Plan
A new poll from the UMBC Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County shows dismal support for the state constitutional amendment known as Question 3, which goes before voters in the November general election. Fifty-three percent of likely voters say they will vote no, only 25% say they will vote yes, and 19% are undecided. The survey of 776 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22–27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Democrat-led amendment would remove the state constitution's requirement that congressional districts be "compact and contiguous," loosening the General Assembly's hand in redistricting. If it passes, the Democratic supermajority legislature could redraw the congressional map to its liking, potentially taking effect before the 2028 general election and even threatening the seat of Rep. Andy Harris, the state's lone Republican congressman. Gov. Wes Moore is a leading backer of the amendment, and the state Supreme Court has already ruled it can appear on the ballot.
The poll also shows opposition crossing party lines: 74% of Republicans, 59% of unaffiliated voters and 42% of Democrats say they will vote no. The pro-amendment group Fight Back Maryland launched a television, text-message and mail advertising blitz over the weekend to try to turn things around before Election Day, but it still trails badly. Institute director Mileah Kromer said effective messaging could still change the trajectory of the race.
Source: The Baltimore Banner https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/state-government/umbc-poll-redistricting-question-3-QQUMJHNATJF77IX7YZHAU4OL3I/
图片来源：Wikimedia Commons 公有领域（CC0）· 马里兰州安纳波利斯州议会大厦
