高盛上调全球股票至“增持”：财报季前估值转具吸引力 看好美国与亚洲、看淡欧洲 并把政府债券12个月评级同步升至增持
财报季开场前夜，华尔街最具分量的策略团队之一给出了偏乐观的信号。高盛周一将全球股票的三个月评级从“中性”上调至“增持”，理由是企业盈利增长仍具支撑、且近期回调后估值变得更有吸引力；这一调整使高盛的短期看法与其一贯看多的12个月立场保持一致。GSM此前从未报道高盛的策略观点，现补入此条。
地区配置上，高盛对亚洲与美国维持“增持”、对欧洲维持“低配”。它同时提示近端风险没有消失：中东供应担忧推高油价，正在助长通胀与“利率更高更久”的担忧，企业与主权债务规模攀升此前已引发一轮全球债券抛售、令市场数周不安；美国中期选举的不确定性也可能把当前处于低位的市场波动率推高。高盛偏好的应对方式是“杠铃策略”：一端是科技股，另一端是类债券型股票——两者都有望受益于利率回落，同时在科技股回调或增长担忧升温时互为对冲。
值得注意的还有债券端的变化：高盛把政府债券的12个月评级同步上调至“增持”，认为债券应逐步从投资组合的逆风因素转为对冲工具。在10年期美债收益率停留在5.24%、全球债市刚经历抛售的时点上，这一判断与高盛股票端的乐观形成组合层面的呼应：不是单边押注风险资产，而是认为回调后的股票与重新具备防御价值的债券可以同时持有。对GSM的金融读者而言，这份周一发布的策略调整，是观察机构资金在财报季、CPI与美联储10月底会议之前如何摆位的最新参照。
资料来源：路透社2026年10月12日报道。
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Global Equities to Overweight Ahead of Earnings Season, Favours U.S. and Asia Over Europe
Goldman Sachs on Monday upgraded its three-month view on global equities to overweight from neutral, saying earnings growth remains supportive and valuations have become more attractive after the recent pullback, ahead of the earnings season. The bank kept an overweight stance on Asia and the United States and an underweight on Europe, while flagging that higher rates and energy prices remain the main near-term risks and that U.S. midterm election uncertainty could lift market volatility from current low levels. It favours a barbell strategy pairing technology stocks with bond-like equities. Goldman also raised its 12-month stance on government bonds to overweight, arguing bonds should gradually move from a portfolio headwind to a hedge.
Source: Reuters, October 12, 2026.
图片来源：图片 Image: Marcin Milewski, 200 West Street (Goldman Sachs Tower) from One World Observatory, CC BY, via Wikimedia Commons
