内华达州长选战胶着：民调隆巴多42%对福特40%，预测市场福特反超，数据中心成胜负手
距离11月3日大选不到一个月，内华达州州长选战陷入胶着。据《里诺公报》引述的“内华达民意脉搏”最新民调（Noble Predictive Insights于9月22日至26日对800名登记选民、708名可能选民在线调查），寻求连任的共和党现任州长乔·隆巴多以42%对40%领先民主党挑战者、现任州总检察长亚伦·福特，差距在误差范围内。无党派的库克政治报告将这场选战评级为“胜负难料”。
预测市场也出现异动：Polymarket上，隆巴多自9月24日以来一直以51%的隐含胜率领先，但过去48小时内福特实现反超，目前以55%的胜率领先。
数据中心议题正成为左右选情的关键。隆巴多8月31日与联邦许可改进指导委员会签署协议，让内华达加入FAST-41联邦快速审批通道，可能加速联邦土地上的数据中心建设。隆巴多当时表示：“这项协议将帮助内华达消除不必要的拖延……支持负责任的增长、强化经济、为内华达人带来实实在在的成果。”但艾默生学院9月10日的民调显示，59%的内华达可能选民反对在自家附近建数据中心。
福特是内华达现任总检察长、曾任州参议院多数党领袖。选战中，隆巴多阵营攻击福特在州赦免委员会任内对多名暴力罪犯的减刑投票；福特阵营则主打其检察官履历。值得注意的是，内华达州长无权单独赦免，赦免决定由州长、总检察长和州最高法院法官组成的赦免委员会作出。隆巴多曾任克拉克县警长。同一民调还显示，副州长、州务卿、财务长、主计长和总检察长等全州职位竞选中，民主党候选人均以1至8个百分点领先。据《里诺公报》、Action Network等媒体报道。
Nevada governor's race in deadlock: poll has Lombardo 42% vs. Ford 40%, prediction market flips to Ford, data centers emerge as decisive issue
With less than a month to the Nov. 3 election, Nevada's governor's race is locked in a dead heat. According to the Reno Gazette Journal, citing the latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse poll — an online survey of 800 registered voters and 708 likely voters conducted Sept. 22-26 by Noble Predictive Insights — Republican incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo leads Democratic challenger and current Attorney General Aaron Ford 42 percent to 40 percent, within the margin of error. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race a 'toss up.'
Prediction markets have also shifted: on Polymarket, Lombardo had led with 51 percent implied odds since Sept. 24, but Ford flipped the race over the past 48 hours and now leads with a 55 percent chance of winning.
Data centers are emerging as the decisive issue. On Aug. 31, Lombardo signed an agreement with the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council enrolling Nevada in the FAST-41 federal fast-track permitting process, which could speed data center construction on federal land. 'This agreement will help Nevada cut through unnecessary delays, improve coordination with our federal partners, and move critical projects forward,' Lombardo said at the time. 'By making the permitting process more efficient and predictable, we can support responsible growth, strengthen our economy, and deliver results for Nevadans.' But a Sept. 10 Emerson College poll found 59 percent of likely Nevada voters oppose data center construction near them.
Ford is Nevada's current attorney general and a former majority leader of the state Senate. In the campaign, Lombardo's camp has attacked Ford's clemency votes on the state pardon board for violent offenders, while Ford's camp leans on his record as a prosecutor. Notably, Nevada's governor cannot unilaterally grant pardons; those decisions rest with the Board of Pardons Commissioners, made up of the governor, the attorney general and Nevada Supreme Court justices. Lombardo previously served as sheriff of Clark County. The same poll showed Democratic candidates leading Republicans by 1 to 8 points in the races for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller and attorney general. Reported by the Reno Gazette Journal, Action Network and others.
图片来源：内华达州议会大厦（卡森城），CC0（Wikimedia Commons）
