美股逼近纪录高位迎超级周：周二银行财报季开锣、周三9月CPI公布，10年期收益率站上5.23%
美股进入超级周。标普500指数逼近历史高位之际，10月12日至16日这一周将迎来密集考验：三大银行周二公布三季度财报，周三上午公布9月消费者价格指数（CPI），美联储主席的讲话也在本周日程上。市场已开始为数据定价。
周一（10月12日）是哥伦布日，债市休市、股市正常开盘（美东时间上午9:30至下午4:00）。周二（10月13日），摩根大通、富国银行、花旗集团将率先拉开三季度财报季大幕，净利息收入与信贷成本将是焦点——过去一个月，标普500银行指数在国债收益率上行中下跌了约9%。
重头戏是周三（10月14日）美东时间上午8:30公布的9月CPI。路透调查预计，整体CPI环比上涨0.6%、同比上涨3.6%，剔除波动较大的食品与能源的核心CPI环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨2.5%。RBC经济学家指出，整体通胀仍主要受油价推动。Glenmede投资策略副总裁迈克尔·雷诺兹（Michael Reynolds）说，要让市场确信美联储不必像预期那样激进地加息，我们需要看到核心服务通胀明显放缓。
通胀去留直接关系到美联储的下一步。美联储10月27日至28日将召开议息会议；交易员已下调对美联储当月再次加息的预期，但如果CPI爆冷上行，加息押注可能卷土重来。Fitch美国经济研究主管索诺拉（Olu Sonola）称，CPI是关键指标：美联储会考虑就业疲软信号，但10月的利率决定仍取决于通胀。
背景是美国基准利率高企、通胀粘性犹存：10年期国债收益率最新约5.23%，处于24年来高位附近；咨商会（Conference Board）警告，家庭实际收入增长乏力，消费者正在削减非必需开支。市场还将紧盯周末的地缘局势——利雅得机场遇袭后油价的地缘风险溢价，可能成为周一开盘情绪的变量。（消息来源：路透社、Yonhap Infomax、Fitch Ratings）
Stocks Near Records Enter Crunch Week: Bank Earnings Kick Off Tuesday, September CPI Wednesday, 10-Year Yield at 5.23%
U.S. equities enter a make-or-break week. With the S&P 500 hovering near record highs, the Oct. 12-16 calendar brings a concentrated test: the big banks kick off third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, September consumer price index (CPI) data lands Wednesday morning, and remarks from the Federal Reserve chair are also on the schedule. Markets are already pricing the data.
Monday, Oct. 12 is Columbus Day: bond markets are closed while equities trade regular hours, 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. On Tuesday, Oct. 13, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup lead off Q3 earnings season, with net interest income and credit costs in focus — the S&P 500 banks index has fallen about 9% over the past month as Treasury yields climbed.
The main event is Wednesday's September CPI, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. A Reuters poll expects headline CPI to rise 0.6% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, with core CPI — excluding volatile food and energy — up 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. RBC economists note headline inflation remains largely an oil-price story. To be confident that the Fed doesn't need to respond with monetary policy as aggressively as the market expects, we need to see a clear slowdown in core services inflation, said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.
Inflation's path directly shapes the Fed's next move. The FOMC meets Oct. 27-28; traders have reduced bets on another rate hike this month, but a hotter-than-expected CPI could revive them. CPI is a critical indicator, said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings: while the Fed will consider weakened employment signals, the October rate decision will still hinge on inflation.
The backdrop is high U.S. policy rates and sticky inflation: the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.23%, close to a 24-year high, and the Conference Board warns household real income growth is tepid, with consumers cutting discretionary spending. Markets will also watch weekend geopolitics — the geopolitical risk premium in oil after the Riyadh airport attack could set the tone for Monday's open. (Sources: Reuters, Yonhap Infomax, Fitch Ratings)
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