密歇根大学消费者信心10月初值跌至46.3，逼近历史最低，现状指数创纪录新低
密歇根大学周五（10月9日）公布，消费者信心指数10月初值从9月终值48.1跌至46.3，低于市场预期的约47.8，为5月创下44.8的历史最低以来的最低水平；若月末终值维持在这一水平，将是该指数有记录以来的第二低。其中现状指数从50.9大跌至44.7，创历史新低，耐用品购买条件因价格与借贷成本高企而明显恶化；预期指数则从46.3小升至47.3。
通胀预期小幅上行：未来一年通胀预期从9月的4.6%升至4.7%，长期通胀预期从3.4%升至3.5%，均为5月以来最高。调查负责人许乔安妮（Joanne Hsu）表示，各政治立场的消费者对生活成本的不满都在上升，普遍认为今年以来经济走势转弱；低收入消费者与持股较少的家庭本月信心下滑尤其陡峭，因为他们抵御涨价的余地更小。
本次调查在9月22日至10月5日间进行。分析指出，尽管信心逼近历史低位，居民实际消费迄今仍较有韧性，主要由股市财富效应与相对稳定的就业支撑；但中期选举临近之际，油价高企与通胀预期回升令家庭对经济的感受持续承压，美联储也密切关注通胀预期这一指标。
（资料来源：密歇根大学消费者调查，经路透社、《华尔街日报》、CNN报道）
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 46.3 in Early October, Near Record Low as Current Conditions Hit All-Time Low
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a preliminary 46.3 in early October from a final 48.1 in September, below economists' expectations of about 47.8 and the lowest since May's record low of 44.8, the university reported Friday (Oct. 9). If the reading holds at month's end, it would be the second-lowest on record. The current conditions index plunged from 50.9 to a record-low 44.7 as buying conditions for durable goods deteriorated amid high prices and borrowing costs, while the expectations index edged up from 46.3 to 47.3.
Inflation expectations ticked higher on both horizons: year-ahead expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in September, and long-run expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%, both the highest since May. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said frustration over the cost of living continues to mount across the political spectrum, and that sentiment dropped especially steeply among lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios, who have fewer resources to weather price increases.
The survey was conducted between Sept. 22 and Oct. 5. Analysts note that actual consumer spending has so far remained resilient, supported by stock-market wealth gains and a stable job market, even as sentiment sits near historic lows ahead of the midterm elections, with high fuel prices and rising inflation expectations weighing on households. The Federal Reserve also watches inflation expectations closely.
(Sources: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via Reuters, WSJ, CNN)
图片来源：图：密歇根大学安娜堡校区法学院建筑群（Law Quadrangle）。摄影：w_lemay，CC BY-SA 2.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
