比特币周末守住 8.3 万美元：ETF 两日流出 7.3 亿美元 华尔街机构却在悄悄加仓
比特币 10 月 10 日周六在 8.28 万至 8.33 万美元区间窄幅震荡，24 小时交投区间为 82,229 至 83,315 美元，市值约 1.66 万亿美元。CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 指出，当前价格正徘徊在约 8.05 万美元的“全市场平均持仓成本线”上方——即所有流通比特币加权平均买入价，市场整体处于微盈亏平衡状态。
本周资金流向呈现冰火两重天。美国现货比特币 ETF 在 10 月 7 日、8 日两日合计净流出约 7.3 亿美元，其中 10 月 7 日的 4.85 亿美元为 6 月 25 日以来最大单日流出。10 月以来 ETF 累计净流出约 4.1 亿美元。链上数据显示，投资者单日实现利润达 10.3 亿美元，为 2026 年第二大规模获利了结。
但华尔街大机构在逆势加仓：富达 FBTC 基金过去 20 个交易日买入 3.54 亿美元比特币，同期还买入 6,660 万美元以太坊与 1,820 万美元 Solana；摩根士丹利旗下 MSBT 基金本周增持约 92 枚比特币，总持仓达 10,639 枚、价值约 8.8 亿美元。
宏观层面，10 年期美债收益率逼近 5.5%、美元走强、油价维持在 100 美元/桶上方，继续压制风险资产。Coinbase Institutional 策略师 Colin Basco 认为，若 10 年期收益率升至 5.5%，比特币的盘整期将延长；但若回落至 7.2 万美元附近，反而是买入机会。
市场下一个关键节点是 10 月 14 日公布的 CPI 数据与 10 月 28 日的美联储议息会议。多头认为，只要比特币周收盘守住 8.27 万美元，买方仍占上风，目标看向 8.7 万至 8.8 万美元；空头则押注 ETF 连续流出叠加加息预期，将把价格重新压回 8 万美元下方。
Bitcoin Holds $83,000 Into the Weekend as ETF Outflows Clash With Wall Street Buying
Bitcoin traded in a narrow range between $82,800 and $83,300 on Saturday, October 10, with a 24-hour range of $82,229 to $83,315 and a market capitalization of about $1.66 trillion. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted the price is hovering just above the roughly $80,500 "average holder cost basis" — the weighted average purchase price of all bitcoin in circulation — leaving the market as a whole near break-even.
Fund flows told a split story this week. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $730 million on October 7-8, with October 7's $484.9 million marking the largest single-day outflow since June 25. October is now net negative by roughly $410 million. On-chain data showed investors realized $1.03 billion in profits in a single day, the second-largest profit-taking event of 2026, per Santiment.
Yet Wall Street giants kept buying the dip: Fidelity's FBTC fund purchased $354.1 million of bitcoin over the past 20 trading days, along with $66.6 million of Ethereum and $18.2 million of Solana. Morgan Stanley's MSBT fund added about 92 coins this week, lifting its holdings to 10,639 BTC worth roughly $880 million.
Macro headwinds persist: the 10-year Treasury yield is pushing toward 5.5%, the dollar is strong, and oil remains above $100 a barrel, all weighing on risk assets. Coinbase Institutional strategist Colin Basco said a move in the 10-year toward 5.5% would extend bitcoin's consolidation, though a pullback toward $72,000 would be a buying opportunity.
The next catalysts are the October 14 CPI report and the October 28 FOMC meeting. Bulls argue that a weekly close above $82,700 keeps buyers in control with $87,000-$88,000 in sight; bears are betting continued ETF outflows and rate-hike expectations drag prices back below $80,000.
图片来源：Satheeshsankaran，CC BY 2.0（Wikimedia Commons）
