停火满一年之际再添变数：以军周六空袭加沙致 5 人死亡，阿巴斯推迟大选至 2027 年 9 月
美国斡旋的加沙停火生效满一年之际，周六（10 月 10 日）传来两项新动态，把这份停火的脆弱性再次摆到台面上。
先是战火未熄。据加沙卫生部门与医护人员向路透社通报，以色列周六在加沙地带发动两起空袭，至少 5 名巴勒斯坦人死亡：其中 4 人死于加沙城 Panda Mall 附近的一起空袭，另 1 人死于加沙城以南的 Tuffah 社区。以色列军方表示，两起空袭打击的是武装人员，但没有提供更多细节。
双方对停火现状的说法截然相反。以方近几周加强了对哈马斯的打击，称哈马斯正在重新武装并发动违反停火的袭击；哈马斯否认重整军备或策划袭击，反指以色列在破坏一年前由美国斡旋达成的停火。按加沙卫生官员的统计，停火以来已有至少 1,400 名巴勒斯坦人死于以军火力；以方称同期有 4 名以军士兵被武装人员打死。停火协议本应通向加沙重建，并包含哈马斯解除武装、以军撤出等条款，但一年过去，落实进展有限（GSM 本周已发停火满一年综述，本条为周六新进展）。
同日，巴勒斯坦政治日程也被改写。巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯（Mahmoud Abbas）周六颁布法令，取消原定今年 11 月举行的立法选举，并把总统选举与立法选举一并定在 2027 年 9 月 11 日举行，巴勒斯坦官方通讯社 WAFA 报道了这一决定。法令称，以色列措施造成的障碍、以及约旦河西岸与加沙的现实条件，使 11 月无法举行自由、公正、包容的选举：西岸方面，法令列举了以军袭击、定居点扩张、定居者暴力、包括东耶路撒冷在内的出行限制，以及以色列继续扣留巴勒斯坦税收；加沙方面，则有安全与人道状况异常、以军撤出未完成、重建缺乏进展、国际稳定部队与警察部署安排未落实等因素，选举委员会工作人员与国际观察员进入加沙和东耶路撒冷也受到限制。
这一推迟决定是在巴解组织执委会通过相关决议、并与巴勒斯坦各派别协商后作出的，法令称此举是为全国对话留出时间，以加强团结、处理选举进程面临的挑战。以色列外长萨尔（Gideon Saar）在社交平台发文拒绝接受阿巴斯的说法，并指出巴勒斯坦上一次大选已是约二十年前。
背景是巴勒斯坦选举的长期停摆：巴勒斯坦上一次立法与总统选举还是 2005 至 2006 年，此后哈马斯夺取加沙、将阿巴斯的忠实派逐出，阿巴斯自其总统任期 2009 年届满后一直以法令方式执政。今年 4 月，约旦河西岸与加沙中部城市代尔拜莱赫（Deir al-Balah）曾举行市政选举，后者是加沙自 2006 年以来首次参加选举投票。如今大选再推迟近一年，意味着加沙战后治理、重建与政治安排的不确定性将继续拖长。后续看点包括：停火在空袭频仍下能否维持、2027 年选举日期能否落实，以及国际稳定部队部署与重建安排的谈判进展。
A Year Into the Ceasefire, Fresh Strains: Israeli Strikes Kill Five in Gaza on Saturday as Abbas Postpones Palestinian Elections to September 2027
A year after the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire took effect, two developments on Saturday, Oct. 10, underscored its fragility — fresh Israeli strikes in Gaza and a formal postponement of Palestinian elections.
Gaza health officials and medics told Reuters that Israeli strikes killed at least five Palestinians in two separate attacks on Saturday: four near Panda Mall in Gaza City and one in the Tuffah neighbourhood. The Israeli military said the strikes targeted militants and gave no further details. Israel has stepped up strikes in recent weeks, saying Hamas is rearming and carrying out attacks in violation of the ceasefire; Hamas denies rebuilding its arsenal and accuses Israel of undermining the truce agreed a year ago. Gaza health officials say at least 1,400 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the truce, while Israel says four of its soldiers have been killed by militants in the same period. GSM has published an anniversary assessment of the ceasefire; this draft covers Saturday's new developments.
Also on Saturday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree cancelling legislative elections scheduled for November and setting both presidential and legislative elections for Sept. 11, 2027, according to the official WAFA news agency. The decree cited obstacles posed by Israeli measures and conditions in the West Bank and Gaza — including military attacks, settlement expansion, settler violence, movement restrictions, withheld tax revenues, the incomplete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, stalled reconstruction and the absence of arrangements for international stabilisation forces — as preventing free, fair and inclusive elections in November. The postponement followed a PLO executive committee resolution and consultations with Palestinian factions, and was framed as allowing time for national dialogue. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar rejected Abbas's reasoning in a social-media post, noting that the last Palestinian elections were held about two decades ago.
Palestinians have not held legislative or presidential elections since 2005-06; Hamas subsequently seized Gaza, and Abbas, whose presidential mandate expired in 2009, has governed by decree since. Municipal elections were held in April in the West Bank and in Deir al-Balah, the only Gaza city to take part and the enclave's first vote since 2006.
What to watch next: whether the ceasefire holds amid frequent strikes, whether the 2027 election date materializes, and the course of negotiations on international stabilization force deployment and reconstruction arrangements.
图片来源：白宫作品，公有领域（Wikimedia Commons）
