两项民调：西班牙人民党与Vox合计有望赢得议会多数
10月9日星期五公布的两项民调显示，西班牙中右翼人民党（PP）与极右翼Vox有望在11月29日提前大选中合计赢得议会多数。这场大选由执政的社会党在住房法令被议会否决后宣布提前举行。
《国家报》民调显示，PP与Vox合计将赢得198席，超过组建多数所需的176席；两党在2023年大选合计为170席，其中Vox支持率将翻倍。社会党将从121席跌至112席，其极左执政伙伴Sumar支持下滑，令桑切斯的组阁选项严重受限。
得票率方面，PP以31.9%居首，社会党为28.1%。两党较2023年均有流失，但社会党跌幅更大。若选举结果如民调所示，将意味着欧洲仅存的左翼政府之一落幕。
桑切斯自2018年执政至今，从未在议会赢得过多数。他寄望住房危机激发的愤怒动员左翼选民，并已多次否认其政党及家人的不当行为指控。
Polls: Spain's PP and Vox on Track for Combined Parliamentary Majority
Two opinion polls published on Friday, October 9, showed Spain's centre-right People's Party (PP) and far-right Vox on track to win a combined parliamentary majority in the snap general election called for November 29 after parliament rejected the government's housing proposals.
An El Pais survey showed PP and Vox together clinching 198 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority, up from a combined 170 in 2023, with Vox set to double its support. The Socialists would fall to 112 seats from 121, with options to govern severely limited by falling support for their far-left partner Sumar.
In vote share, the PP would win with 31.9% ahead of the Socialists' 28.1%. Both parties lose ground compared with 2023, but the Socialists' fall is sharper. An electoral defeat would end one of Europe's last remaining left-leaning governments.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, in power since 2018 without ever winning a parliamentary majority, is gambling that anger over housing will galvanise leftist voters. He has repeatedly denied wrongdoing by his party and family.
图片来源：图：西班牙众议院大楼（马德里）。摄影：Luis García（Zaqarbal），CC BY-SA 3.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
