加拿大9月再丢6.8万个岗位 失业率升至6.5% 央行10月加息预期降温
2026年10月9日，加拿大统计局发布9月劳动力调查：全国就业减少6.8万个（下降0.3%），为连续第二个月下滑，8月已减少约4.2万个；失业率从6.4%升至6.5%，就业率降至60.6%。据加拿大统计局与路透社报道，路透调查的经济学家此前预期就业增加约9200个，结果与预期反差明显。
结构上，全职与兼职岗位各减少约3.5万与3.3万个。公共部门减少7万个，为连续第四个月下降，一年内累计减少11.9万个，其中教育服务减少3.5万个，医疗与社会援助减少2.3万个，制造业减少约1.3万个。青年（15至24岁）就业减少4.8万个，两月累计减少6.7万个，青年失业率维持在13.0%。平均时薪同比上涨2.3%，至37.64加元。
地区分布极不均衡：魁北克一省减少4.9万个，占全国降幅的七成以上；安大略与不列颠哥伦比亚各减少2万个；阿尔伯塔则逆势增加2.3万个，是唯一录得明显增长的大省。劳动参与率降至64.8%，为1997年12月以来（不计2020年疫情期）最低，统计局将其归因于人口老龄化与年轻工人入场减少、国际学生流入放缓。
市场随即下调对加拿大央行的加息押注。TD 经济与 CIBC 的经济学家指出，这份报告给10月28日的议息决定「泼了冷水」，投资者对10月加息的定价概率降至约四分之一；也有分析提醒月度数据波动大，弱势更多反映数据噪声而非美国关税的直接冲击。下一次就业数据定于11月6日发布。
Canada Sheds 68,000 Jobs in September, Unemployment Rises to 6.5% as Rate-Hike Expectations Cool
Statistics Canada released its September Labour Force Survey on October 9, 2026: employment fell by 68,000 (0.3 percent), a second consecutive monthly decline after a loss of about 42,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5 percent from 6.4 percent, and the employment rate slipped to 60.6 percent. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain of about 9,200, making the miss stark, Statistics Canada and Reuters reported.
The losses split almost evenly between full-time work, down about 35,000, and part-time work, down about 33,000. Public-sector employment fell 70,000, a fourth straight monthly decline and 119,000 lower than a year earlier, with educational services down 35,000, health care and social assistance down 23,000, and manufacturing down roughly 13,000. Employment among 15-to-24-year-olds fell 48,000, a two-month loss of 67,000, while youth unemployment held at 13.0 percent. Average hourly wages rose 2.3 percent year over year to $37.64.
The regional split was sharp: Quebec lost 49,000 jobs, more than 70 percent of the national decline; Ontario and British Columbia each lost 20,000; Alberta added 23,000, the only major province to gain. The participation rate fell to 64.8 percent, its lowest since December 1997 outside the pandemic, which Statistics Canada attributed largely to population aging, fewer young entrants and slower international student arrivals.
Markets promptly cut bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike. Economists at TD and CIBC said the report poured cold water on the case for a hike at the October 28 decision, with market pricing for an October move falling to roughly one in four, though analysts cautioned that monthly data are volatile and the weakness may reflect noise more than a direct hit from U.S. tariffs. The next labour report is due November 6.
图片来源：渥太华国会山中央大楼。摄影：Ken Lund，CC BY-SA 2.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
