首轮第三名库里背书弗拉维奥，决选民调显示两人技术平局
10月8日（周四），巴西总统决选的拉票大战再添关键一子。据路透社10月8日报道，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗当天宣布，首轮排名第三的作家、精神科医生奥古斯托·库里已决定在10月25日决选中支持他，对阵现任总统卢拉。弗拉维奥在社交媒体上发布了库里宣布背书的视频；此前已有本地媒体报道库里的支持意向。
库里代表前进党（Avante）参选，首轮获得2.89%的有效票。他以往避免以左翼或右翼自我定位，竞选口号是“专注于要紧事”，其选民多为对两大阵营都不满的中间选民，因此他的背书被视为决选中最具分量的落选者表态之一。此前，前戈亚斯州州长卡亚多已背书弗拉维奥，雷南·桑托斯则明确不背书任何一方。
同日，Datafolha公布决选阶段的首份民调：弗拉维奥以49%的投票意向略高于卢拉的45%，另有5%的受访者表示将投空白票，1%未决定。路透社指出，由于误差幅度为正负2个百分点，这一结果仍属技术平局。该民调于10月6日至7日面对面访问了2,520人；若只计有效票，弗拉维奥与卢拉的比例约为52%对48%。
民调机构在首轮普遍低估弗拉维奥的表现，让决选民调备受审视。两大阵营接下来将把火力集中在圣保罗等大州与首轮弃票选民身上，10月25日的投票率可能成为决定胜负的隐藏变量。
Third-Place Finisher Cury Endorses Bolsonaro as Runoff Poll Shows a Technical Tie
The battle for endorsements in Brazil's presidential runoff gained a major name on Thursday, October 8. Reuters reported that Flavio Bolsonaro announced the backing of Augusto Cury, the author-psychiatrist who finished third in Sunday's first round, for the October 25 runoff against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro shared a video of Cury announcing the endorsement, following local media reports of his support.
Cury, of the Avante party, won 2.89 percent of valid first-round votes. He has avoided identifying with either left or right, campaigning under the slogan centered on what matters, and his voters skew toward the disaffected middle — making his endorsement one of the most consequential of the runoff. Former Goias governor Ronaldo Caiado had already endorsed Bolsonaro, while Renan Santos has said he will endorse neither candidate.
The same day, Datafolha released its first runoff poll: Bolsonaro at 49 percent of voting intentions to Lula's 45 percent, with 5 percent planning a blank vote and 1 percent undecided. Reuters noted the margin of error of plus or minus two points makes it a technical tie. The survey interviewed 2,520 people in person on October 6–7; expressed in valid votes, the split was about 52 percent to 48 percent.
Pollsters' first-round underestimate of Bolsonaro has put every runoff survey under scrutiny. Both campaigns are now concentrating on big states such as Sao Paulo and on the voters who stayed home in the first round — turnout on October 25 may be the runoff's hidden deciding variable.
图片来源：图：参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（右）与律师瓦塞夫在记者会。摄影：Agência Senado，CC BY 2.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
