新加坡三大银行股遭抛售：花旗降级华侨银行至“卖出”，华侨单日跌5.9%
新加坡——新加坡三大银行股10月7日遭遇今年最猛烈的一轮抛售。导火索是花旗集团把华侨银行（OCBC）的评级从“中性”下调至“卖出”，目标价27.50新元，理由是预计其第三季度盈利与去年同期持平。当天华侨银行大跌5.9%，收报30.30新元；大华银行（UOB）跌2.9%，收报42.44新元；星展集团（DBS）跌1.4%，收报77.49新元。三家银行的股价今年早些时候都曾创下纪录或接近纪录。
分析人士指出，这不是单一银行的问题，而是一次板块性的估值重置：三大银行同步下跌，显示市场在质疑整个行业的预期是否过高。星展今年7月市值突破2000亿新元，为新加坡上市公司之首；三大银行合计约占海峡时报指数权重的一半，它们的涨跌直接牵动整个大盘。彭博的分析则指出，摩根大通警告，长期债券收益率上升将使银行交易账簿出现高额按市值计价的损失，并影响东南亚银行的资本活动；汇丰也已把新加坡股票下调至中性，理由是估值偏高、金融条件对房地产板块构成压力。
也有策略师认为基本面并未恶化：不良贷款暂无明显恶化迹象，贷款增长相对健康；政府振兴股市的努力应能限制下行风险。尤利乌斯·贝尔（Julius Baer）亚洲股票研究分析师Jen-Ai Chua说：“进入传统上动荡的10月，唯一能确定的是前方会有更多价格波动。”
抛售在10月8日继续扩大（三大银行两日累计跌幅6%至10%，海指8日创2025年4月以来最差单日表现）。对普通储蓄者与退休金投资者而言，银行股是新加坡家庭资产组合的核心仓位，这轮回调的持续时间与深度，将是本月本地市场最大的悬念。
来源：据SG Stocks Investing、Financial Horse对10月7日交易数据的汇总及彭博经Livemint发布的银行股分析整理。
Singapore's Big Three Banks Sold Off as Citi Downgrades OCBC to 'Sell'; OCBC Falls 5.9% in a Day
SINGAPORE — Singapore's three big bank stocks suffered their sharpest sell-off of the year on October 7. The trigger was Citigroup's downgrade of OCBC from 'neutral' to 'sell', with a target price of S$27.50, on expectations that its third-quarter earnings would be flat year on year. OCBC plunged 5.9 percent that day to close at S$30.30; UOB fell 2.9 percent to S$42.44; and DBS fell 1.4 percent to S$77.49. All three had reached record or near-record levels earlier in the year.
Analysts say this was not one bank's problem but a sector-wide valuation reset: when all three decline together, the market is signalling that expectations for the whole sector may have become too demanding. DBS crossed S$200 billion in market capitalisation in July, a first for a Singapore-listed company, and the three banks together account for roughly half the Straits Times Index — their moves drag the whole market. Bloomberg's analysis noted that JPMorgan warned rising long bond yields would produce high mark-to-market losses on banks' trading books and hurt capital activity for Southeast Asian banks, and that HSBC had cut Singapore stocks to neutral as valuations became stretched and financial conditions weighed on real estate.
Not everyone is turning cautious. Some strategists argue there are still no overtly concerning signs of bad debt, loan growth remains relatively healthy, and the government's efforts to rejuvenate the equities market should limit downside risks. 'As we enter the traditionally turbulent month of October, the only thing we can be sure of is more volatility in price action ahead,' said Jen-Ai Chua, Asia equity research analyst at Julius Baer.
The sell-off deepened on October 8, taking the three banks' two-day losses to between 6 and 10 percent, with the STI posting its worst day since April 2025. For ordinary savers and pension investors — bank stocks are a core holding in Singapore household portfolios — how long and how deep this correction runs is the local market's biggest question of the month.
Sources: Compiled from SG Stocks Investing and Financial Horse's summaries of October 7 trading data, and Bloomberg's bank-sector analysis carried by Livemint.
图片来源：莱佛士坊华侨银行中心前的雕塑，Terence Ong 摄，CC BY 2.5（Wikimedia Commons）
