MBA周报：房贷申请量再降4.2%，再融资指数跌至2025年以来最低
华盛顿10月7日——据抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）周度调查并经Realtor.com报道，截至10月7日当周，MBA市场综合指数（房贷申请量）经季节调整环比下降4.2%。其中购房申请指数下降2%，同比低15%；再融资指数大跌8%，为2025年以来最低，不到去年同期的一半。
MBA副总裁兼副首席经济学家乔尔·坎（Joel Kan）表示，在当前利率下，极少房主有动力再融资，借贷成本跳升也让许多潜在购房者退回观望席。MBA口径的30年期固定利率合规贷款平均合同利率当周升至7.49%；房地美口径同期为7.28%（截至10月1日当周），两家机构样本与统计方法不同，数字不可直接等同。
结构上，再融资占全部申请的比重一周内从38.3%降至37%；可调利率贷款（ARM）占比则升至8.1%，显示部分借款人转向初期利率较低的浮动产品对冲高利率。FHA贷款占比从16.7%微降至16.4%，VA贷款占比从11.9%降至11.8%。本轮申请量下滑的直接背景，是全球债券抛售推高美债收益率、房贷利率创近三年新高。
口径提示：MBA的申请量数据未经房地美式的信用与首付筛选，样本覆盖更广，因此其合同利率通常高于房地美PMMS读数；两组数据同向变动时，才可视为利率行情的确认信号。本周两组数据同向上行，指向四季度开局的借贷成本仍在抬升通道。
信息来源：MBA周度房贷申请调查，经Realtor.com 10月7日报道。
图片来源：Boston Housing Prices Showing Signs of Life — Matthew Simoneau / CC BY 2.0 (via Openverse)
MBA: Mortgage Applications Fall 4.2% as Refinance Index Hits Its Lowest Since 2025
WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 — Mortgage applications fell 4.2% in the week ending Oct. 7 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey as reported by Realtor.com. The Purchase Index dipped 2% from the prior week and was down 15% from a year ago. The refinance index plunged 8% to its lowest level since 2025, at less than half of last year's pace.
'Very few homeowners have an incentive to refinance at these rates, and the jump in borrowing costs has caused many potential borrowers to step back from the purchase market,' said Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist. MBA's average contract rate on 30-year fixed conforming loans hit 7.49% in its survey; Freddie Mac's figure for the comparable period was 7.28% for the week ending Oct. 1. The two organizations use different loan samples and methodologies, so the figures are not directly interchangeable.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased from 38.3% to 37% in one week, while the adjustable-rate share rose to 8.1% of total applications as some borrowers turned to lower initial rates. The FHA share ticked down from 16.7% to 16.4%, and the VA share from 11.9% to 11.8%. The drop came as a global bond selloff pushed Treasury yields — and mortgage rates — to their highest in about three years.
A methodology note: MBA application data are not screened by credit and down payment the way Freddie Mac's survey sample is, so its contract rates usually run above the PMMS reading. Only when the two series move in the same direction do they confirm the rate trend — and this week both moved up, indicating borrowing costs were still rising at the start of the fourth quarter.
Source: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, reported by Realtor.com, Oct. 7.
Photo: Boston Housing Prices Showing Signs of Life — Matthew Simoneau / CC BY 2.0 (via Openverse)
图片来源：图片 Image: Maple Grove, Minnesota - Suburban Homes (26596346938).jpg by Tony Webster (CC BY 2.0，经维基共享资源）/ via Wikimedia Commons
