昆尼皮亚克民调：夏皮罗领先加里蒂25个百分点，州长辩论同晚举行
据福克斯29台报道，昆尼皮亚克大学10月7日公布的民调显示，在宾夕法尼亚州州长选举中，民主党现任州长乔什·夏皮罗（Josh Shapiro）以59%对34%大幅领先共和党挑战者、州财政部长斯泰西·加里蒂（Stacy Garrity），自由党候选人肯·克劳丘克（Ken Krawchuk）得票率为2%。分析人士称，在这个传统摇摆州，如此悬殊的差距堪称“一边倒”。
据报道，该民调于10月1日至5日访问了1159名可能投票的选民，误差范围为正负3.9个百分点。63%的可能选民认可夏皮罗的施政表现，仅30%不认可；55%对他持好感，29%持反感。相比之下，仅22%对加里蒂持好感，32%持反感，44%表示对她了解不足、无法形成看法——知名度差距是她竞选团队一直难以弥合的短板。
在从经济到教育的具体议题处理能力上，选民也一致更看好夏皮罗。政治学者表示，这一数字既反映夏皮罗的个人声望，也反映共和党在特朗普2024年以微弱劣势输掉的这个州难以找到突破口。
民调还显示，在联邦众议院控制权之争中，54%的宾州可能选民希望民主党赢得众议院，39%希望共和党获胜；独立选民中支持民主党的比例达56%对27%——这对共和党在这个全美最受关注的众议院战场是警示信号。
值得注意的是，夏皮罗与加里蒂10月7日晚举行了竞选中的第二场州长辩论；夏皮罗随后还参加了10月10日在白厅镇（Whitehall Township）举行的竞选拉票启动活动。距离11月3日选举日不足一个月，加里蒂竞选团队表示将投放新广告，向还不认识她的选民介绍自己。
Quinnipiac Poll: Shapiro Leads Garrity by 25 Points as Governor Rivals Debate
HARRISBURG, Pa. — Democratic incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro holds a commanding 59% to 34% lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in Pennsylvania's governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Oct. 7, Fox 29 reported. Libertarian Ken Krawchuk polled at 2%, in what analysts called a potential rout in the battleground state.
The survey of 1,159 likely Pennsylvania voters, conducted Oct. 1-5, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Shapiro enjoys 63% job approval against 30% disapproval, with 55% holding a favorable opinion of him and 29% unfavorable. By contrast, 22% view Garrity favorably, 32% unfavorably, and 44% say they have not heard enough about her to form an opinion — a name-recognition gap her campaign has struggled to close.
Voters consistently favored Shapiro on handling of specific issues, from the economy to education. Political scientists said the numbers reflect both Shapiro's personal popularity and the difficulty Republicans have had finding a message that breaks through in a state Trump lost narrowly in 2024.
The poll also found 54% of likely voters want Democrats to win control of the U.S. House, versus 39% for Republicans, with independents favoring Democrats 56% to 27% — a warning sign for the GOP in the nation's most-watched House battleground.
Shapiro and Garrity debated Wednesday night, Oct. 7, their second face-off of the campaign, and Shapiro later joined a campaign canvass launch in Whitehall Township on Oct. 10. With less than a month to Election Day on Nov. 3, Garrity's campaign said it would go on the air with new advertising aimed at introducing her to voters who still don't know her.
图片来源：图：哈里斯堡天际线与萨斯奎汉纳河，州议会大厦在望。CC BY 2.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
