Zillow发布9月市场报告：新签约销量同比降8.5%，房市「提前入冬」
西雅图10月6日——据Zillow 10月6日发布的9月市场报告，高企的房贷利率与秋季传统淡季叠加，房市活动明显降温：现有住房成交量同比下降2.5%（初步估测），作为未来成交先行指标的新签约销量同比下降8.5%。Zillow形容9月房市「提前入冬」。
价格与成本方面，Zillow房价指数（ZHVI）显示全美房价同比仅涨1%；但利率推升使典型月供同比高出6.7%（按首付20%测算，不含税费与保险）。9月底30年期利率报7.28%，为2023年11月以来最高（房地美口径）。供给端，新挂牌量同比多0.4%，但仍比疫情前基准低11.9%；在售库存总量同比高2.5%，为连续第34个月同比增长。
租赁市场走向相反：Zillow观察租金指数（ZORI）显示全美典型租金同比涨2.7%至1,932美元，为2025年4月以来最大年涨幅，且租金年增速自4月以来逐月加快，多户与独栋出租房源同步上涨。Zillow分析，购房市场退潮正把需求挤向租赁端，推高租金成本。
分项口径说明：Zillow的成交与签约数字为其自有平台的初步估测（nowcast），与全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的成屋销售月报在发布时间与修订节奏上不同，两者方向一致时可信度更高。NAR的9月成屋销售数据按惯例于10月下旬发布，届时可交叉验证本报告的降幅是否成立。
信息来源：Zillow 9月市场报告（10月6日，经PR Newswire发布）。
图片来源：Aerial — Daquella manera / CC0 (via Openverse)
Zillow September Report: Newly Pending Sales Fall 8.5% as Housing Market Sees an Early Winter
SEATTLE, Oct. 6 — Sky-high mortgage rates and the usual fall slowdown teamed up to chill housing activity, according to Zillow's September Market Report released Oct. 6. Closed sales of existing homes fell 2.5% from a year earlier on Zillow's preliminary nowcast, while newly pending sales, a leading indicator of future closings, fell 8.5% year over year. Zillow described an 'early winter' for the housing market.
Home values remain little changed, up just 1% over the past year on the Zillow Home Value Index. But higher rates have pushed the typical mortgage payment 6.7% above a year ago, assuming 20% down and excluding taxes and insurance. Mortgage rates ended September at 7.28%, the highest since November 2023 on Freddie Mac's measure. New listings were 0.4% above last September yet 11.9% below the pre-pandemic baseline, and total for-sale inventory was 2.5% higher than a year ago, a 34th consecutive month of annual gains.
The rental market moved the other way: the typical U.S. rent rose 2.7% year over year to $1,932 on the Zillow Observed Rent Index, the biggest annual gain since April 2025, with rent growth accelerating every month since April for both multifamily and single-family homes. Zillow says the for-sale market's retreat is translating into rising rental costs.
A note on sources: Zillow's closing and pending figures are its own preliminary nowcasts, published on a different schedule from the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales report and subject to revision. When the two series point the same way, confidence rises; NAR's September figures, due later in October, will let readers cross-check the size of the declines reported here.
Source: Zillow September Market Report, Oct. 6, via PR Newswire.
Photo: Aerial — Daquella manera / CC0 (via Openverse)
图片来源：Aerial — Daquella manera / CC0 (via Openverse)
