最新民调：国家党支持率跌至2020年以来最低 绿党升至14.8%
2026年10月6日前后公布的RNZ-Reid Research民调显示，新西兰执政的国家党支持率跌至25.9%，为2020年大选以来的最弱水平，给距大选仅一个月的总理克里斯托弗·卢克森再添压力。据路透社报道，在野的绿党支持率升至14.8%，工党则小幅下滑至30.8%，机会党以5.5%略高于进入国会所需的5%门槛。
若这一结果在11月7日选举日重现，国家党领衔的执政联盟与工党—绿党—毛利党阵营都无法单独取得120席国会的多数，机会党可能在组阁谈判中握有决定性作用。卢克森此前曾表示，由于税制政策分歧，国家党不太可能与机会党合作。
本次在线民调于9月24日至10月1日访问了1000名合格选民，误差幅度为3.1个百分点。此前一周公布的1News-Verian民调则显示，左翼阵营有望以65席对59席占优。两份民调共同勾勒出一场胜负难料的选战，新西兰的比例代表制使联合政府几乎成为定局。
选战进入最后一个月，各党将密集公布财政与民生政策。民调中执政党支持率的下滑与第三党的上升，也促使媒体与分析人士重新评估选后组阁的各种组合可能。
National Support at Weakest Level Since 2020 in RNZ-Reid Research Poll
An RNZ-Reid Research poll published around 6 October 2026 put support for New Zealand's governing National Party at 25.9 per cent, its weakest result since the 2020 election, adding pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon a month before the general election. Reuters reported that the opposition Greens climbed to 14.8 per cent, Labour slipped to 30.8 per cent, and the smaller Opportunity Party polled 5.5 per cent, just above the threshold for entering Parliament without an electorate seat.
If those numbers were repeated on election day, 7 November, neither the National-led bloc nor a Labour-Greens-Te Pati Maori grouping would hold a majority in the 120-seat Parliament, potentially giving Opportunity a pivotal role in coalition talks. Luxon has previously said National was unlikely to work with Opportunity because of its tax policies.
The online poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters between 24 September and 1 October, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. A 1News-Verian poll released the previous week suggested a Labour-led combination could reach 65 seats against 59 for the incumbent bloc. Together, the surveys point to another close contest in which a coalition government is all but certain under proportional representation.
With a month to run, the parties are releasing fiscal and cost-of-living policies in quick succession. The governing party's slide and the rise of a potential kingmaker have prompted fresh analysis of the post-election combinations that could emerge.
图片来源：奥克兰皇后街街景。摄影：Krzysztof Golik，CC BY-SA 4.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
