债市波动指标MOVE升至16个月高位，分析师：股市的平静可能是暴风雨前的宁静
衡量美债市场波动预期的MOVE指数持续攀升：该指数6月单月大涨46%，目前在116附近徘徊，接近3月高点，为2025年4月以来最高水平，而股市VIX指数和比特币波动率却依然低位。
宏观观察人士指出，MOVE不断抬高低点、VIX不断压低高点，走势出现背离。RiskSIGNAL报告作者Kurt S. Altrichter表示：“MOVE是领先指标——它在2022年、2023年以及伊朗战争爆发前都提前闪现过动荡信号。股市通常是最后一个收到消息的。”MOVE是美债市场的“VIX”，基于2年、5年、10年和30年期国债期权测算未来一个月收益率的预期波动。指数上行已开始推高企业借贷成本。美联储上次会议纪要将于周三公布，或为债市带来新的波动。（CoinDesk）
Bond Market's MOVE Index Climbs to 16-Month High; Analysts Warn Stock Calm May Be 'Calm Before the Storm'
The MOVE index, which gauges expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, keeps climbing: it surged 46% in June and now hovers around 116, near its March high and the loftiest reading since April 2025, while the equity VIX and bitcoin volatility stay subdued.
Macro watchers note the divergence — the MOVE making higher lows while the VIX makes lower highs. "The MOVE leads: it flashed turbulence before the VIX in 2022, in 2023, and at the start of the Iran war. Stocks are usually the last to get the message," said Kurt S. Altrichter, author of the RiskSIGNAL Report. The MOVE — the bond market's version of the VIX — measures expected swings in Treasury yields over the next month using options on 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year bonds. Its rise is already lifting corporate borrowing costs. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting, due Wednesday, could bring fresh volatility to bonds. (CoinDesk)
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