南非私营部门9月萎缩速度为去年12月以来最快 新订单锐减、德班港拥堵推高成本
2026年10月5日周一公布的标普全球南非采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，南非私营部门9月以去年12月以来最快速度萎缩。据路透社10月5日报道，该指数从8月的50.5降至49.0，跌破50荣枯线，企业活动、新订单与采购库存再度收缩。
标普全球市场情报首席经济学家戴维·欧文（David Owen）表示，需求走弱与价格上涨、经济不确定性增加有关：新订单以两年半来最快速度下降，客户因燃油价格与国内外经济前景不明而推迟支出；出口业务则逆势连续第四个月增长。供应链压力同步加剧，供应商交付时间拉长至2024年2月以来最严重的程度，受访企业指向德班港拥堵、航运中断与材料短缺。
成本端同样不乐观：以燃油价格为主的投入成本通胀保持高企，采购价格通胀升至三个月高点，企业以去年6月以来最快速度上调售价。就业则大体持平，仅轻微裁减。
同日披露的另一组数据为这幅图景添上注脚：《商业日报》10月5日报道，南非848套市政污水处理系统中396套处于危急状态，显示基础设施短板正与企业经营压力相互叠加。对在南非经营进出口与制造业的华商而言，德班港的疏港进度与燃油价格走势，是企业界持续关注的焦点。
South Africa's Private Sector Contracts at Fastest Pace Since December as Orders Fall and Durban Congestion Bites
South Africa's private sector contracted in September at its fastest pace since December, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index showed on Monday, October 5, 2026. Reuters reported the index fell to 49.0 from 50.5 in August, below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction, amid renewed contractions in business activity, new orders and stocks of purchases.
David Owen, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the downturn reflected a weaker demand environment linked to rising prices and increased economic uncertainty: new orders dropped at the sharpest rate in two and a half years as customers delayed spending amid uncertainty over fuel prices and domestic and international conditions, while export business bucked the trend, rising for a fourth straight month. Supply-chain pressures intensified, with delivery times lengthening to the greatest extent since February 2024 as respondents pointed to congestion at the Port of Durban, shipping disruption and material shortages.
Cost pressures remained sharp, driven mainly by fuel, with purchase-price inflation at a three-month high and companies raising selling prices at the fastest pace since June. Employment was little changed, with only a slight workforce reduction.
A second dataset the same day added context: Business Day reported on October 5 that 396 of South Africa's 848 municipal wastewater treatment systems are in a critical state, underlining how infrastructure weaknesses compound business pressures. For Chinese importers, exporters and manufacturers operating in South Africa, the clearing pace at Durban's port and the trajectory of fuel prices are the most immediate operating variables for the months ahead.
图片来源：约翰内斯堡市中心夜景。摄影：Andrew Moore，CC BY-SA 2.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
