9月购房交易取消率升至14.5%创Redfin纪录：在售库存总量达2020年3月以来最高
西雅图10月5日——据Redfin报告，9月全美约14.5%的购房交易中途取消，为该机构有记录以来的最高比例；同期待售库存总量升至2020年3月以来最高。Redfin分析，买方市场格局给了购房人更多「走开」的余地：备选房源变多、利率在签约后继续上行，都会促使买家行使合同 contingencies（附加条件）退出交易。
同一报告的成交端数据同样偏冷：9月已成交销量环比下降1.6%，为2023年底以来最低。需要注意的是，9月成交的合同大多在7、8月利率上行途中签订，反映的是夏季观望情绪的滞后兑现；而9月新签约量的走向，要等本月数据才能确认是否出现节后企稳。
对卖家的提示在于定价与条款的先后手：取消率纪录高企的市况下，首挂价格一步到位、并对买家贷款预批文件做实质核查，比寄望于后续竞价更能降低交易中途流产的概率。买家方面，合同中保留贷款与估价附加条件，是在利率波动期控制退出成本的标准做法。
库存结构的另一面是房龄与房型：本轮库存高点主要由滞销存量累积而成，新近挂牌量仍比疫情前基准低约一成（Zillow口径）。换言之，「库存回到2020年3月水平」不等于「可挑的好房源回到当年」——装修状态佳、定价合理的房源流转速度仍然很快，积压的主要是定价偏高或有硬伤的房源。
信息来源：Redfin报告（经PR Newswire发布）；成交与库存数据为该机构9月统计。
图片来源：Real Estate Meltdown - Ground Zero — A.Davey / CC BY 2.0 (via Openverse)
14.5% of Home Deals Fell Through in September, a Redfin Record; Total Supply Highest Since March 2020
SEATTLE, Oct. 5 — About 14.5% of homebuying deals fell through in September, the highest share in Redfin's records, while the total supply of homes for sale rose to its highest level since March 2020, according to Redfin's report. Redfin says the buyer's market gives house hunters more room to walk away: more alternative listings, and rates that kept rising after contracts were signed, both encourage buyers to exit through contract contingencies.
Closed sales were also soft: September closings fell 1.6% month over month to their lowest level since the end of 2023. Most of those deals went under contract in July or August, when rates were marching upward and economic uncertainty was pushing buyers to the sidelines, so the closing figures lag the summer mood rather than describe October's.
For sellers, a record cancellation rate argues for pricing correctly at first listing and substantively verifying buyers' pre-approval documents, rather than counting on later bidding. For buyers, keeping financing and appraisal contingencies in the contract is the standard way to cap exit costs while rates are volatile.
The other side of the inventory figure is composition: this cycle's high is built from slow-selling stock accumulating, while new listings still run about a tenth below the pre-pandemic baseline on Zillow's measure. 'Inventory back to March 2020 levels' therefore does not mean 'choice back to 2020 levels' — well-kept, fairly priced homes still move quickly, and what accumulates is mainly overpriced or flawed stock.
Source: Redfin report via PR Newswire, September data.
Photo: Real Estate Meltdown - Ground Zero — A.Davey / CC BY 2.0 (via Openverse)
图片来源：Real Estate Meltdown - Ground Zero — A.Davey / CC BY 2.0 (via Openverse)
