魁北克省选：魁人党赢59席组建少数政府 独立公投议题重回加拿大政坛
2026年10月5日周一，魁北克省举行省选，支持独立的魁人党（Parti Québécois，PQ）赢得国民议会127席中的59席，将组建少数政府。据 Policy Magazine、法国《世界报》与选举结果统计，魁人党得票率约28%，距过半所需的64席差5席；魁北克自由党获40席，魁北克保守党19席，魁北克团结党9席，自2018年执政的魁北克未来联盟（CAQ）则一席未得。
魁人党党魁保罗·圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙东（Paul St-Pierre Plamondon）将成为新任省长。他在胜选演说中说，魁人党「为成千上万不再相信的魁北克人重新点燃了对未来的希望」，支持者高呼「魁北克，一个国家」。该党承诺在任内推动第三次独立公投，但普拉蒙东此前表示，会等到特朗普不再担任美国总统后再举行公投。魁人党在2022年省选时仅有3席，此次跃升至59席，被视为魁北克政坛的剧变。
结果同时暴露了领先者当选制的放大效应：魁人党以约28%的得票率拿下46%的席位，创下魁北克胜选政党得票率新低；未来联盟得票约13%却颗粒无收。公平投票组织（Fair Vote Canada）指出，若魁人党多赢几个摇摆选区，本可能以约三成得票组成多数政府并推进公投，而民调显示仅约三分之一魁北克选民支持脱离加拿大。
联邦层面，总理卡尼表示渥太华将与新一届魁北克政府合作，共同处理基础设施、经济增长与受美国关税影响的工人等议题。魁人党上台后的头100天计划包括增拨资金应对无家可归、设立政府效率秘书处、收紧移民接收门槛等。少数政府意味着该党须争取反对党支持才能通过法案，独立公投的时间表与条件将成为未来数年加拿大国家统一议题的核心——1980年与1995年两次公投中，独立选项均被否决。
Quebec Election: Parti Québécois Wins 59 Seats to Form Minority Government, Sovereignty Back on the Agenda
Quebecers voted on Monday, October 5, 2026, and returned the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ) to power with 59 of the National Assembly's 127 seats, enough to form a minority government. Policy Magazine, Le Monde and the official results put the PQ at about 28 percent of the popular vote, five seats short of the 64 needed for a majority. The Quebec Liberals won 40 seats, the Conservative Party of Quebec 19 and Québec solidaire nine, while the Coalition Avenir Québec, in power since 2018, was swept aside without a single seat.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will become premier. In his victory speech he said the party had rekindled hope among hundreds of thousands of Quebecers, as supporters chanted for a sovereign Quebec. The party has pledged a third referendum on independence, though Plamondon has said he would wait until Donald Trump is no longer U.S. president before holding one. The PQ had held just three seats after the 2022 election, making the jump to 59 a political earthquake in the province.
The result also exposed the magnifying effect of first-past-the-post: the PQ took 46 percent of seats with roughly 28 percent of the vote, a record low for a winning party in Quebec, while the CAQ won no seats with about 13 percent. Fair Vote Canada noted that a few more swing ridings could have produced a PQ majority on about 30 percent of the vote, even though polling suggests only about a third of Quebec voters would vote to leave Canada.
In Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney said the federal government will work with the incoming Quebec government on infrastructure, economic growth and support for workers affected by U.S. tariffs. The PQ's first-100-days plan includes new funding against homelessness, a government efficiency secretariat and lower immigration admission thresholds. As a minority government it will need opposition support to pass legislation, and the timing and conditions of any referendum will sit at the centre of Canada's national-unity debate; independence was defeated in the referendums of 1980 and 1995.
图片来源：图：魁北克省议会大厦（国民议会所在地）。摄影：Wilfredor，CC0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
