决选第一天：两名右翼落选者背书弗拉维奥，卢拉阵营重整旗鼓
10月5日（周一），巴西总统大选决选阶段开跑。据路透社10月5日报道，首轮落选的两名右翼候选人——前戈亚斯州州长罗纳尔多·卡亚多与前米纳斯吉拉斯州州长罗梅乌·泽马——当天宣布在10月25日的决选中支持参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，对阵现任总统卢拉。卡亚多在首轮获得2.18%的有效票，泽马获得0.27%；卡亚多团队表示他将于周二与弗拉维奥会面正式宣布背书，泽马则在社交媒体上公布了决定。
首轮结果出乎多数民调预料：弗拉维奥以约47%的有效票居首，卢拉约45%，两人得票分别约为5,610万与5,388万。排名靠前的其他候选人中，作家、精神科医生奥古斯托·库里（2.89%）与雷南·桑托斯（2.24%）表示不背书任何一方，他们的选民流向成为决选的关键变量。
与此同时，弗拉维奥所在的自由党在同日举行的国会选举中成为最大赢家：参议院席位从15席增至28席，众议院拿下121席，均为单一政党多年来的最强成绩。路透社指出，一个亲博索纳罗的国会——尤其是参议院——将有助于他推动赦免其父：前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗因2022年败选后策划政变被判27年徒刑。
卢拉方面，竞选团队在圣保罗重新集结，卢拉称决选是“新的一场比赛”。分析人士指出，决选民调显示两人接近平手，弗拉维奥首轮被低估的幅度让后续民调的可信度也受到质疑，未来三周的每一场造势都至关重要。
Runoff Day One: Two Right-Wing Rivals Endorse Bolsonaro as Lula Regroups
The runoff phase of Brazil's presidential election opened on Monday, October 5. Reuters reported that two right-wing candidates eliminated in Sunday's first round — former Goias governor Ronaldo Caiado and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema — endorsed Senator Flavio Bolsonaro for the October 25 runoff against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Caiado won 2.18 percent of valid votes in the first round and Zema 0.27 percent; Caiado's team said he would meet Bolsonaro on Tuesday to announce the endorsement formally, while Zema posted his on social media.
The first-round result defied most forecasts: Bolsonaro led with about 47 percent of valid votes to Lula's roughly 45 percent, on about 56.1 million votes to 53.8 million. Among other leading finishers, author-psychiatrist Augusto Cury, on 2.89 percent, and Renan Santos, on 2.24 percent, said they would endorse neither man, leaving their voters a key variable in the runoff.
Bolsonaro's Liberal Party was also the biggest winner of Sunday's congressional elections, rising from 15 to 28 Senate seats and taking 121 seats in the lower house — the strongest single-party showing in years. Reuters noted that an allied Congress, and especially Senate, would help Bolsonaro pursue an amnesty for his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
Lula's campaign regrouped in Sao Paulo, with the president calling the runoff a new campaign. Analysts noted that runoff polls show a near dead heat, and that the scale of Bolsonaro's first-round polling miss has cast doubt on subsequent surveys — making every rally in the next three weeks count.
图片来源：图：巴西总统府高原宫，巴西利亚。摄影：Annemariebr at English Wikipedia，Public domain，取自 Wikimedia Commons
