阿根廷市场周一走强：巴西首轮选举提振地区情绪，央行持续购汇、财长贝森特表态可再援助
布宜诺斯艾利斯——阿根廷金融市场10月5日周一收高，股市与主权债同步反弹。此前一周阿根廷资产大幅下挫、9月全月股市跌逾7%，周一的回升主要由金融股领涨，标普Merval指数盘中上涨约2.83%，BBVA与Macro等银行股涨幅居前。
地区情绪是当天的主要推手。巴西10月4日举行总统选举首轮投票，参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗得票率约47%，领先于预期，将与现任总统卢拉在10月25日决选。阿根廷咨询机构Max Capital认为，这一结果对阿根廷有利：更强的雷亚尔、更低的利率以及一个在南方共同市场内的天然盟友，都有助于米莱政府的计划。巴西是阿根廷最大的贸易伙伴，在阿根廷多边实际汇率指数中权重约20%。
外汇方面，银行间比索汇率当日小幅升值至约1519比索兑1美元，中央银行继续购汇充实储备，此前一周已购入约3.69亿美元，年内累计购汇接近150亿美元。分析汇总同时指出，美国财政部长贝森特近日向媒体表示，美国可能重复去年对阿根廷的金融援助，这为市场提供了额外支撑。
不过交易员也提醒，阿根廷国内经济活动走弱与2027年大选临近仍是中期变量。官方第三季度产出数据将于12月公布，市场在此之前将继续在地区利好与本土疲软之间权衡定价。
来源：据路透社2026年10月5日布宜诺斯艾利斯市场报道及10月6日风险溢价后续报道整理。
Argentine Markets Rise on Monday: Brazil's First Round Lifts Regional Mood as Central Bank Keeps Buying Dollars
BUENOS AIRES - Argentine financial markets rose on Monday, October 5, with stocks and sovereign bonds rebounding together. After a week of heavy losses that left the stock market down more than 7% in September, financial shares led the recovery, with the S&P Merval index up about 2.83% intraday and banks such as BBVA and Macro among the top gainers.
Regional sentiment was the day's main driver. Brazil voted in the first round of its presidential election on October 4, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took about 47% of valid votes - ahead of most polling - setting up an October 25 runoff against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Argentine consultancy Max Capital called the result favourable for Argentina: a stronger real, lower rates and a natural Mercosur ally would all help President Milei's plans. Brazil is Argentina's biggest trading partner and carries roughly a 20% weight in its multilateral real exchange-rate index.
In currency markets, the wholesale peso firmed slightly to about 1,519 per dollar, while the central bank kept buying foreign currency to rebuild reserves, having purchased about $369 million the previous week and close to $15 billion so far this year. Analysts also noted that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently told media the United States could repeat last year's financial assistance to Argentina, adding support.
Traders cautioned, however, that weak domestic activity and the approach of the 2027 election remain medium-term variables. Official third-quarter output data are due in December; until then, markets will keep weighing regional tailwinds against homegrown softness.
Sources: Compiled from Reuters market reporting from Buenos Aires on October 5, 2026, and its October 6 country-risk follow-up.
图片来源：图：阿根廷中央银行总部大楼立面与阿根廷国旗。摄影：Galio，CC BY-SA 3.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
