纽约时报/锡耶纳民调：德州参议员选战塔拉里科领先 州长选战胶着
德州奥斯汀——10月3日公布的《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合民调显示，德州联邦参议员选战中，民主党候选人塔拉里科（Talarico）以51比45领先共和党候选人帕克斯顿（Paxton）；州长选战中，民主党人希诺霍萨（Hinojosa）以49比46领先现任州长阿博特（Abbott）。据《今日美国》10月5日报道，民调结果让德州这个传统红州的选情陡生悬念。
参议员选战方面，塔拉里科6个百分点的领先优势超出不少观察人士的预期。帕克斯顿阵营质疑民调方法，称内部数据更为乐观；塔拉里科阵营则表示，领先反映了选民求变的意愿，竞选将乘胜追击。
州长选战更为胶着，希诺霍萨仅领先3个百分点，在误差范围内。阿博特作为在任州长拥有更高的知名度与竞选资金，但挑战者的紧追不舍让共和党不敢掉以轻心。
分析人士指出，若民调准确，德州可能成为今年中期选举最大的意外战场。不过也有专家提醒，德州民调历来难以准确预测，距离11月3日选举日还有一个月，变数依然很多。
NYT/Siena Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race; Governor's Race Tight
AUSTIN, Texas — A New York Times/Siena College poll released Oct. 3 shows Democrat Talarico leading Republican Paxton 51-45 in the Texas U.S. Senate race, while Democrat Hinojosa leads incumbent Gov. Abbott 49-46 in the governor's race, USA Today reported on Oct. 5. The numbers inject fresh drama into Texas, long a Republican stronghold.
Talarico's six-point Senate lead exceeded many observers' expectations. Paxton's camp questioned the poll's methodology, citing more favorable internal data; Talarico's team said the lead reflects voters' appetite for change and vowed to press the advantage.
The governor's race is tighter — Hinojosa's three-point edge sits within the margin of error. Abbott enjoys higher name recognition and a fundraising advantage as the incumbent, but the challenger's surge has Republicans on alert.
Analysts say Texas could become the biggest surprise battleground of the midterms if the polling holds — while cautioning that Texas polls have a history of missing the mark, and a month remains until the Nov. 3 election.
图片来源：德州议会大厦（奥斯汀），Wikimedia Commons，CC0
