Redfin数据：全美卖家比买家多57.9%创纪录，买家数量降至2013年以来最低
西雅图10月2日——据Redfin估算并经财经媒体Mitrade汇总报道，8月全美活跃卖家约153万人，为2020年初以来最多；而买家数量降至约97.23万人，是其自2013年有数据以来的最低点。卖家比买家多出57.9%，为有记录以来的最大差距。2022年初疫情抢房潮高峰时，局面恰好相反：买家比卖家多约35%。
买家退场的主因是借贷成本。30年期固定房贷利率10月1日升至7.28%，为2023年11月以来最高，把月供推高到许多家庭预算之外。卖家一侧也在调整：Redfin数据显示，截至9月20日的四周内，21.1%的在售房源有过降价，为其自2022年开始追踪以来的季节性高点。
市场人士指出，这次「买家市场」的形成机制与以往不同：需求收缩源于家庭预算被挤压，而非房价大幅回落。对在美华人买家而言，卖家降价面扩大意味着议价空间回到市场，但利率锁定成本仍是总持有成本的大头，决策时应把利率、税费与保险合并测算。
历史对照更能显示本轮差距的量级：疫情前十年，卖家与买家的数量大体平衡，互有上下；2022年初买家多出35%是抢房潮的顶点，而今卖家多出57.9%，一进一出之间摆动近93个百分点，为Redfin统计史上最剧烈的一次供需反转。
信息来源：Redfin估算数据，经Mitrade财经汇总报道；利率数据据房地美10月1日周报。
图片来源：Sold Sign and House — myguys.nova / CC BY-SA 2.0 (via Openverse)
Redfin: Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record 57.9%; Buyer Count Lowest Since 2013
SEATTLE, Oct. 2 — Redfin estimates that about 1.53 million sellers were active in August, the most since early 2020, while buyers fell to roughly 972,300, the lowest count in data going back to 2013, according to a Mitrade summary of Redfin's figures. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9%, the largest margin ever recorded. At the height of the pandemic-era bidding wars in early 2022, the picture was reversed, with buyers outnumbering sellers by around 35%.
Rising borrowing costs explain much of the retreat: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.28% on Oct. 1, its highest since November 2023, pushing monthly payments beyond many household budgets. Sellers are adjusting in response — Redfin data show 21.1% of listings had a price cut in the four weeks to Sept. 20, a seasonal high since tracking began in 2022.
Analysts note this buyer's market has an unusual mechanism: demand is shrinking because household budgets are stretched, not because prices have fallen sharply. For buyers, a wider field of price cuts restores negotiating room, but the locked-in rate remains the largest component of total ownership cost alongside taxes and insurance.
Historical comparison shows the scale of the swing: through the pre-pandemic decade, seller and buyer counts were roughly balanced, trading places year to year. Buyers led by about 35% at the bidding-war peak in early 2022; sellers now lead by 57.9% — a swing of nearly 93 percentage points, the sharpest supply-demand reversal in Redfin's data.
Source: Redfin estimates as summarized by Mitrade; rate data from Freddie Mac's Oct. 1 survey.
Photo: Sold Sign and House — myguys.nova / CC BY-SA 2.0 (via Openverse)
图片来源：图：郊区独立住宅前草坪上立有「已售」牌。摄影：Famartin，CC BY-SA 4.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons
