10 年期美债收益率升至 5.33% 创 2002 年以来新高，美股 10 月首日收盘近乎平盘
据 TheStreet 与多家财经媒体报道，10 月 1 日（周四）美股收盘涨跌不一、近乎平盘，债市成为当天主导市场的力量：10 年期美国国债收益率上行约 4 个基点至 5.3338%，创 2002 年 4 月以来最高水平；30 年期收益率升至 5.6702%，为 2002 年 7 月以来最高。
盘面上，个股分化明显：埃森哲公布的季度业绩与 2027 财年展望好于预期，股价上涨；美光科技尽管营收大增并给出强劲指引，股价仍下跌近 4%，显示市场对科技股的预期门槛已经抬得极高。耐克定于当晚盘后公布财报，盘中股价下跌 0.42%，今年以来累计跌幅约 44%。金价小幅上涨至每盎司 4193.70 美元。
分析人士指出，前一交易日公布的 PCE 通胀数据低于预期，一度让交易员下调对美联储 10 月加息的押注，但收益率冲上 20 多年高位仍在压制蓝筹与利率敏感板块。市场接下来将紧盯周五发布的月度就业报告，以判断利率路径。
对普通投资者而言，5.33% 的 10 年期收益率意味着无风险利率回到一代人未见的水平：房贷、车贷与企业融资成本都将被动抬升，这也是当天蓝筹股跑输成长股的直接原因。市场普遍预期，只要就业数据不出现明显降温，收益率短期内难言见顶。
图片来源：纽约证券交易所大楼实景，CC BY 2.0（Wikimedia Commons，摄影：CGP Grey）
Stocks Finish Flat as 10-Year Treasury Yield Touches Highest Level Since 2002
U.S. stocks finished mixed and close to flat on Thursday, Oct. 1, as the bond market set the tone for the session, according to TheStreet and other financial outlets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points to 5.3338%, its highest level since April 2002, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.6702%, the highest since July 2002.
Individual movers told the story of a selective market. Accenture rose after quarterly results and its fiscal 2027 outlook beat expectations. Micron Technology fell nearly 4% even though sales nearly quadrupled from a year earlier and guidance was strong — a sign of how high the bar now sits for technology names. Nike, scheduled to report after the bell, slipped 0.42% and was down about 44% for the year. Gold edged up to $4,193.70 an ounce.
Analysts said a softer-than-expected PCE inflation reading the previous day had trimmed bets on an October Federal Reserve rate hike, but yields at more than two-decade highs continued to pressure blue chips and rate-sensitive sectors. Investors next turned to Friday's monthly jobs report for direction on the rate path.
For ordinary savers and borrowers, a 5.33% 10-year yield means the risk-free rate has returned to levels unseen in a generation, mechanically lifting mortgage, auto-loan and corporate borrowing costs — the direct reason blue chips lagged growth stocks on the day. Most strategists expected yields to stay elevated unless the jobs data cooled markedly.
Photo: 纽约证券交易所大楼实景，CC BY 2.0（Wikimedia Commons，摄影：CGP Grey）
图片来源：纽约证券交易所大楼实景，CC BY 2.0（Wikimedia Commons，摄影：CGP Grey）
