IMF下调柬埔寨2026年增长预期至3.0% 能源与旅游多重压力拖累经济
国际货币基金组织（IMF）10月1日经《金边邮报》报道下调柬埔寨2026年经济增长预期至3.0%，明显低于2025年的5.3%。IMF指出，能源价格上涨、游客到访减少、成衣出口放缓、侨汇回流减弱以及房地产市场持续疲软，共同拖累了这个东南亚国家的经济表现。
与增长放缓相对应，IMF预计柬埔寨消费者通胀将加速至5.6%，之后随能源市场趋于正常而回稳。柬埔寨经济高度依赖成衣出口、旅游业和外部汇款，全球油价与地区局势的任何波动都会迅速传导至金边的工厂、酒店与家庭开支。
IMF同时指出，柬埔寨仍有结构性缓冲：外国直接投资流入保持韧性，国际储备处于健康水平。报告建议金边采取有针对性的财政支持、保持货币政策灵活性，并推进治理改革，以重建中长期宏观金融韧性。
同一天，柬埔寨水资源与气象部还发布双风暴预警，称第26号风暴Surigae与第27号风暴Choi-wan将同时影响区域天气，10月1日至5日全国多地有降雨、强风与雷暴。对普通家庭而言，增长、物价与天气，是这个10月同时压在肩上的三件大事。
IMF Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.0% Amid Energy and Tourism Pressures
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Cambodia's economic growth in 2026 to 3.0 percent, down sharply from 5.3 percent in 2025, the Phnom Penh Post reported on October 1. The IMF cited surging energy prices, declining tourist arrivals, slowing garment exports, reduced remittance flows and continued weakness in the property market.
Consumer inflation is projected to accelerate to 5.6 percent before stabilising as energy markets normalise. Cambodia's economy leans heavily on garment exports, tourism and money sent home by workers abroad, so swings in global fuel prices and regional conditions quickly reach factories, hotels and household budgets in Phnom Penh.
The fund noted structural buffers: foreign direct investment inflows have stayed resilient and international reserves remain healthy. It recommended targeted fiscal support, flexible monetary policy and governance reforms to rebuild longer-term macro-financial resilience.
On the same day, Cambodia's Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology warned that two storms, Surigae and Choi-wan, would affect regional weather at the same time, bringing rain, strong winds and thunderstorms across much of the country from October 1 to 5. Growth, prices and weather were the three pressures Cambodian families faced as October began.
图片来源：金边湄公河畔城市天际线实景，摄影：佚名，CC BY-SA 4.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons（File:Barges on the Tonle Sap river, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.jpg）
