巴西大选竞选收官：卢拉民调微弱领先弗拉维奥，决选几成定局
巴西总统大选竞选活动于10月1日（周四）正式收官。现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦与参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗将在10月4日（周日）的第一轮投票中对决。据路透社10月1日报道，在总共13名候选人的选战中，卢拉预计以微弱优势领跑第一轮，但几乎不可能拿到过半有效票，10月25日的第二轮决选几成定局。
民调机构Datafolha本周四公布的最新估算显示，卢拉在第一轮的投票意向为42%，弗拉维奥为38%。法国《世界报》指出，这场选举的地缘分量罕见：80岁的卢拉在竞选中反复警告外国干预，9月22日他在联合国大会发言时强调巴西的主权立场；美国总统特朗普10月1日对美国媒体表示，他正“非常密切”地关注这场投票。
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗是前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的长子。老博索纳罗去年因策划政变、企图推翻2022年大选结果被定罪，正在服刑，这在其支持者中引发强烈不满，也成为本届选战的背景之一。分析人士对路透社表示，卢拉阵营把对华经贸关系与对美独立性作为卖点，博索纳罗家族则以与华盛顿的密切关系作为竞选筹码。
除总统外，巴西选民10月4日还将选出26个州及联邦区的州长，并改选众议院全部席位、参议院三分之二席位以及各州议会。投票结果将决定这个拉丁美洲最大国家未来四年的政治走向。
Brazil's Campaign Closes With Lula Narrowly Ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro and a Runoff in Sight
Brazil's presidential campaign formally closed on Thursday, October 1, setting up a first-round vote on Sunday, October 4, between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Reuters reported on October 1 that Lula was expected to finish narrowly ahead in a 13-candidate field, but was unlikely to win the majority of valid votes needed to avoid a runoff on October 25.
The latest Datafolha estimates published that Thursday put Lula at 42 percent of first-round voting intentions against 38 percent for Bolsonaro. France's Le Monde noted the unusual geopolitical weight of the race: the 80-year-old Lula spent the campaign warning against foreign interference, stressing Brazilian sovereignty in his September 22 address to the United Nations in New York, while U.S. President Donald Trump told American reporters on October 1 that he was watching the vote very closely.
Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted last year of plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat and is serving a prison sentence — a prosecution that has enraged conservatives in Brazil and abroad and hangs over the whole contest. Analysts told Reuters that Lula's camp treats Brazil's trade relationship with China and independence from Washington as assets, while the Bolsonaro family has used its Washington ties to try to level the electoral playing field.
Beyond the presidency, voters on October 4 will also elect governors in Brazil's 26 states and the federal district, renew the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate, and choose state legislative assemblies. The combined result will set the political direction of Latin America's largest country for the next four years.
图片来源：图：巴西利亚纪念轴与国会大厦。摄影：Cayambe，CC BY-SA 3.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons
